Climate risk, income dynamics and nutrition intake in rural China

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the linkages between climate change, income dynamics and nutrition intake in rural China.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a system of simultaneous equations in a three-stage least squares model instrumented with carbohydrates, fats, proteins and farm income the authors found generally that the greatest impact on nutrition would be from changes in temperature.

Findings

The authors do not find that modest changes in precipitation affect nutrient intake, but extreme events such as drought do. Furthermore, the authors found a strong income effect and this income effect is opposite the heating effect. This may suggest that large swings in nutrient intake brought about by climate change may be countermanded by equivalent increases in income. The authors also found that in terms of general measures of elasticity that market effects, especially in the price of meats, can impact carbohydrate, fat and protein intake as much as global warming.

Originality/value

The authors believe that three aspects of this manuscript will make it interesting. First, in the short term, poorer households would be the most vulnerable and sensitive to climate change. However, in the long term, all households in rural China appear able to deal with changing climatic conditions through adaptation. Second, the authors do not find evidences to prove the existence of a poverty nutrition trap in rural China. Third, the results also indicate that, the nutrition intake of households in rural China is more prone to gradual changes, rather than extreme events.

Citation

Zhou, L. and Turvey, C.G. (2015), "Climate risk, income dynamics and nutrition intake in rural China", China Agricultural Economic Review, Vol. 7 No. 2, pp. 197-220. https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-09-2013-0131