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Agricultural product price forecasting methods: research advances and trend

Luyao Wang (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China)
Jianying Feng (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China)
Xiaojie Sui (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China)
Xiaoquan Chu (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China)
Weisong Mu (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China)

British Food Journal

ISSN: 0007-070X

Article publication date: 27 March 2020

Issue publication date: 11 June 2020

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide reference for researchers by reviewing the research advances and trend of agricultural product price forecasting methods in recent years.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper reviews the main research methods and their application of forecasting of agricultural product prices, summarizes the application examples of common forecasting methods, and prospects the future research directions.

Findings

1) It is the trend to use hybrid models to predict agricultural products prices in the future research; 2) the application of the prediction model based on price influencing factors should be further expanded in the future research; 3) the performance of the model should be evaluated based on DS rather than just error-based metrics in the future research; 4) seasonal adjustment models can be applied to the difficult seasonal forecasting tasks in the agriculture product prices in the future research; 5) hybrid optimization algorithm can be used to improve the prediction performance of the model in the future research.

Originality/value

The methods from this paper can provide reference for researchers, and the research trends proposed at the end of this paper can provide solutions or new research directions for relevant researchers.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Chinese Agricultural Research System (CARS-29) and the open funds the Key Laboratory of Viticulture and Enology, Ministry of Agriculture, PR China.

Citation

Wang, L., Feng, J., Sui, X., Chu, X. and Mu, W. (2020), "Agricultural product price forecasting methods: research advances and trend", British Food Journal, Vol. 122 No. 7, pp. 2121-2138. https://doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-09-2019-0683

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

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