Properties of analysts’ consensus cash flow forecasts for Australian firms

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to determine the properties of analysts’ cash flows from operations (CFO) forecast generated for Australian listed firms as a productive activity, within the wider processes of financial disclosure in Australia.

Design/methodology/approach

Two categories of criteria are adopted: first, basic predictive statistical performance relative to a benchmark model and earnings forecasts; and second, relevance for equity pricing, as indicated by the market reaction to cash flow or forecast error reactions. The final sample comprised 2,138 observations between 2001 and 2016 and several regression models are estimated to determine the relative performance and market reaction.

Findings

Analysts’ consensus cash flow forecasts demonstrate poor predictive performance relative to earnings forecasts. Cash flow forecasts are typically naïve extensions of earnings forecasts. Furthermore, cash flow forecasts appear to be of minimal use for equity market participants in complementing earnings forecasts’ role in informing firms’ equity pricing.

Practical implications

While analysts’ earnings forecasts are useful for making predictions, the role of analysts’ cash flow forecasts in capital market functional efficiency appears quite limited.

Originality/value

This study is one of few that examines comparative usefulness of analysts’ earnings and cash flow forecasts and their predictive power using the Australian setting. Additionally, it enriches the sparse international literature on such forecasts.

Citation

Ahmed, K., Houqe, M.N., Hillier, J. and Crockett, S. (2018), "Properties of analysts’ consensus cash flow forecasts for Australian firms", Accounting Research Journal, Vol. 33 No. 1, pp. 128-147. https://doi.org/10.1108/ARJ-11-2017-0197