The effect of China factor on Taiwan's elections: how has it changed across generations from 2008 to 2014?
Asian Education and Development Studies
ISSN: 2046-3162
Article publication date: 29 October 2020
Issue publication date: 3 March 2022
Abstract
Purpose
The main purpose of this study is to reveal how the China factor influences Taiwan voters' evaluations of the two major parties across elections and generations. We contend that 1) elderly Taiwan voters may take the China factor more seriously than younger cohorts, and 2) China factor may be weighted differently depending on the levels of elections. More importantly, we argue that the China factor is tangled with voters' partisanship.
Design/methodology/approach
Data gathered from 2008 to 2014 Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) enable in investigating the influence of the China factor on Taiwan people's vote choices in the two local and two presidential elections. To answer the research question, this study applies issue voting theory and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) employed for empirical investigations.
Findings
The findings of this study provide empirical evidence on how political generations have changed their reactions to China in Taiwan's elections. The fundamental variables, party identification and the China issue are still very important and cannot be disregarded. Specifically, the China factor played a quite influential role in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters' voting decisions regardless of their generations, whereas its effect on the Kuomintang (KMT) supporters' voting decisions varies depending on electoral contexts and generations.
Originality/value
While some scholars might suspect that the single item is not sufficient to be an effective predictor of vote choice, we contend that the China factor is definitely the most significant component in Taiwan's elections, especially when it is tangled with partisanship. The SUR approach in this study confirms that partisanship and the China factor cannot be viewed separately.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the journal editors, independent reviewers for their insightful comments on earlier drafts. Also, we thank the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) for providing high quality survey data to our research.
Citation
Weng, D.L.-C., Chen, L.-H. and Wang, C.-H. (2022), "The effect of China factor on Taiwan's elections: how has it changed across generations from 2008 to 2014?", Asian Education and Development Studies, Vol. 11 No. 2, pp. 248-264. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEDS-02-2020-0041
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2020, Emerald Publishing Limited