Close approach analysis of space objects and estimation of satellite-debris collision probability

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to perform a comparative study of two propagation models and a prediction of proximity distances among the space objects based on the two-line element set (TLEs) data, which identifies potentially risky approaches and is used to compute the probability of collision among the spacecrafts.

Design/methodology/approach

At first, the proximities are estimated for the mentioned satellites using a precise propagation model and based on a one-month simulation. Then, a study is performed to determine the probability of collision between two satellites using a formulation which takes into account the object sizes, covariance data and the relative distance at the point of closest approach. Simplifying assumptions such as a linear relative motion and normally distributed position uncertainties at the predicted closest approach time are applied in estimation.

Findings

For the case of Iridium-Cosmos collision and the prediction of a closest approach using available TLE orbital data and a propagation model which takes into account the effects of the earth’s zonal harmonics and drag atmospheric, the maximum probability of about 2 × 10 −6 was obtained, which can indicate the necessity of enacting avoidance maneuvers regarding the defined a probability threshold by satellite’s owner.

Originality/value

The contribution of this paper is to analyze and simulate the 2009 prominent collision between the Cosmos2251 and Iridium33 satellite by modeling their orbit propagation, predicting their closest approaches and, finally, assessing the risk of the possible collision. Moreover, an enhanced orbit determination can be effective to achieve an accurate assessment of the ongoing collision threat to active spacecrafts from orbital debris and preventing, if necessary, the hazards thereof.

Citation

Navabi, M. and Hamrah, R. (2015), "Close approach analysis of space objects and estimation of satellite-debris collision probability", Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, Vol. 87 No. 5, pp. 483-492. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEAT-07-2013-0131