Using Consensus and Hierarchical Cross Impact Analysis in Modelling Residents' Perceptions in their Choice of a Dormitory Settlement

Abstract

It is a feature of suburbanised towns and villages in the proximity of larger towns or cities, that the former patterns of rural travel behaviour change significantly. The nature of travel behaviour is mutable as a consequence of rural planning policy where small towns and villages are influenced by government area plans. Northern Ireland offers numerous examples of this phenomenon; and, as part of a wider investigation on sustainable development, this paper reports on a prototype study that assesses the pertinent views of residents within one suburbanised village under the remit of a defined area plan. Primarily, it describes the overall modelling strategy with an emphasis on:

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  differences, in respect of travel behaviour, between newcomers and established residents, and

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  pull factor weightings that illustrate why a suburbanised village is chosen by its residents.

More particularly, the paper discusses the merits and demerits of using a simplified hierarchical cross impact technique in modelling the perception of residents in their choice of dormitory settlement. In supporting this technique, the application of the Gaussian neighbourhood consensus function (Dodd, 1993) is introduced as an opinion profiling device.

Citation

Donegan†, K.S., Smyth†, A.W. and Donegan*, H.A. (1998), "Using Consensus and Hierarchical Cross Impact Analysis in Modelling Residents' Perceptions in their Choice of a Dormitory Settlement", Griffiths, J.D. (Ed.) Mathematics in Transport Planning and Control, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 227-236. https://doi.org/10.1108/9780585474182-022