Economic Growth in Belarus: Analysis, Forecasts, and Scenarios

Abstract

The analysis of the main stages of the Belarusian economy's development from 2000 to 2018 has been carried out, the main factors and limitations of economic growth considered. The known models of economic growth applied to the Belarusian economy are shown. It is grounded that the correct use of endogenous growth models based on production functions is hampered by the significant influence of exogenous factors on the Belarusian economy, and it is more preferable to use models based on the balance of payments under these conditions. The methodology for modeling the balanced economic growth based on Input–Output tables' data is proposed, the results of its use are shown. Three scenarios for the growth of the Belarusian economy until 2025 are analyzed: baseline, adverse, and target; the desired structural changes are identified for the implementation of the target scenario.

Citation

Shimov, V., Bykau, A. and Khvalko, T. (2019), "Economic Growth in Belarus: Analysis, Forecasts, and Scenarios", Sergi, B.S. (Ed.) Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Belarus (Entrepreneurship and Global Economic Growth), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 307-321. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83867-695-720191020