The Impact of US Economic Policy Uncertainty on Developing Countries Under Different Economic Cycles: A Nonlinear Approach

Abstract

Introduction: Uncertainty plays an important role on economic stability and macroeconomic variables. Economic agents postpone decisions about investment and consumption in periods in which uncertainty is high. This situation affects economic growth negatively. Recently, uncertainty has focused on policy uncertainty. At this point, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) comes to the forefront. EPU is defined as conception that economic agents do not forecast consequences of economic policies adopted by policy makers and future economic policies. In terms of developing countries, statements presented by policy makers in the United States especially may appear as a source of uncertainty in developing economies.

Aim: Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of US EPU on macroeconomic variables for Turkey and Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa for periods in which global risk perception is low and high.

Method: The authors used monthly data from January 1998 to December 2018. For this purpose, the authors used Threshold VAR. VIX index takes in consideration as global risk perception. The authors used US EPU index proposed by Baker’s vd. (2016) in order to measure EPU in the United States. Besides, the authors used macroeconomic variables such as industrial production index, inflation and exchange rate.

Findings: As is seen from the results of the analysis, for Turkey’s economy the macroeconomic variables significantly and strongly respond to the changes in the EPU index during the periods in which global risk perception is low; nonetheless, the so-called responses weaken due to the adopted policy of “wait and watch” by investors during the periods in which global risk perception is high.

Citation

Erer, D. and Erer, E. (2020), "The Impact of US Economic Policy Uncertainty on Developing Countries Under Different Economic Cycles: A Nonlinear Approach", Özen, E. and Grima, S. (Ed.) Uncertainty and Challenges in Contemporary Economic Behaviour (Emerald Studies in Finance, Insurance, and Risk Management), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 21-35. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80043-095-220201003