Prelims

Ron Messer (Kwantlen Polytechnic University, Canada)

Financial Modeling for Decision Making: Using MS-Excel in Accounting and Finance

ISBN: 978-1-78973-414-0, eISBN: 978-1-78973-413-3

Publication date: 1 September 2020

Citation

Messer, R. (2020), "Prelims", Financial Modeling for Decision Making: Using MS-Excel in Accounting and Finance, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. i-xxiii. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78973-413-320201001

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2020 Emerald Publishing Limited


Half Title Page

Financial Modeling for Decision Making

Title Page

Financial Modeling for Decision Making: Using MS-Excel in Accounting and Finance

Ron Messer

Kwantlen Polytechnic University, Canada

Accounting is About More than Just Numbers

… it's About Making Better Decisions

United Kingdom – North America – Japan – India – Malaysia – China

Copyright Page

Emerald Publishing Limited

Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK

First edition 2020

Copyright © 2020 Emerald Publishing Limited.

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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-1-78973-414-0 (Print)

ISBN: 978-1-78973-413-3 (Online)

ISBN: 978-1-78973-415-7 (Epub)

Dedication

I dedicate this book to the memory of my late brother, Martin Oscar Messer, who left this world much too soon.

Contents

About the Author xiii
Brief Summary xv
Preface xvii
Chapter 1: Better Learning Decisions 1
 How to Learn (and Teach) Financial Modeling 2
 Learning Financial Modeling 2
 Teaching Financial Modeling 3
 Steps in Developing a Financial Model 4
 Some Common Excel Terminology 5
 Good Financial Modeling Practices 5
 Demonstration Exercise 5
 Case Facts 6
Part 1: Decisions Made about the Future Planning 19
Chapter 2: Break Even Decisions 21
 Background Theory 22
 Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis 22
 Determining Cost Functions 22
 Break-even Volumes 22
 Financial Management Techniques 22
 Relevant MS-Excel Functionality 23
 Demonstration Exercise 24
 Case Facts 24
Chapter 3: Times Series Forecasting Decisions 39
 Background Theory 40
 Types of Forecasting Models 40
 Detecting Patterns in Time 40
 Time Series Forecasting Methods 40
 Financial Management Techniques 41
 Relevant Excel Functionality 43
 Demonstration Exercise 43
 Case Facts 43
 Step 1: Create a Scatterplot to Assess whether a Pattern Exists 43
 Step 2: Perform a Moving Average Forecast for at Least Three Time Intervals 43
 Step 3: Perform an Exponential Smoothing Forecast Using at Least Two Dampening Factors 47
 Step 4: Optimize the Exponential Smoothing Dampening Coefficient 54
 Step 5: Calculate and Evaluate the MAPE for all Forecasts 54
Chapter 4: Capital Budgeting Decisions 61
 Background Theory 62
 The Importance of Cash Flows 62
 NPV, IRR, and Payback Period 62
 The Discount Rate 62
 Financial Management Techniques 63
 Relevant Excel Functionality 63
 Demonstration Exercise 63
 Case Facts 64
 Step 1: Determining the Discount Rate Using a Risk-adjusted Cost of Capital 64
 Step 2: Determining the Incremental Net Cash Flows for the Project 65
 Step 3: Developing a Base Case Scenario for to the Key Decision Variables 65
 Step 4: Determining the NPV, IRR and Payback Period for Each Scenario 68
Chapter 5: Regression Analysis Decisions 77
 Background Theory 78
 Finding Correlations 78
 Determining Causation 78
 Regression Analysis 78
 Financial Management Techniques 79
 Relevant Excel Functionality 80
 Demonstration Exercise 80
 Case Facts 80
 Step 1: Exploring Relationships 81
 Step 2: Creating Scatterplots 82
 Step 3: Measuring Correlations 84
 Step 4: Determine Dependent and Independent Variables 85
 Step 5: Create a Single-variable Regression 85
 Step 6: Create a Multivariable Regression 85
 Step 7: Optimize the Model 95
 Nonnumeric Variables 95
 Interaction Variables 97
Part 2: Decisions Made about the Present Control 103
Chapter 6: Linear Programming Decisions 105
 Background Theory 106
 Some History 106
 Product Mix 106
 Production Scheduling 106
 Financial Management Techniques 106
 Relevant Excel Functionality 107
 Demonstration Exercise 1 107
 Case Facts 107
 Step 1: Create the Excel Worksheet Model 109
 Step 2: Complete the Excel Solver Dialog Box 109
 Step 3: Activate Solver and Generate the Sensitivity Report 113
 Demonstration Exercise 2 118
 Case Facts 118
Chapter 7: Business Valuation Decisions 127
 Background Theory 128
 Analyzing the Cost of Capital 128
 Pro-forma Financial Statements 128
 Forecasting Assumptions 128
 Financial Management Techniques 129
 Relevant Excel Functionality 129
 Demonstration Exercise 129
 Case Facts 132
 Step 1: Calculate Financial Ratios for Forecasting 133
 Step 2: Develop Reasonable Forecast Assumptions 133
 Step 3: Create the Forecast Income Statement and Balance Sheet 134
 Step 4: Convert Net Income into Cash Flows 134
 Step 5: Calculate the Present Value of the Cash Flows 140
 Step 6: Determine the Share Value and Test Sensitivities 140
Chapter 8: Pivot Tables Decisions 149
 Background Theory 150
 Everything Old Is New Again 150
 Some Data Terminology 151
 Types of Data Analytics 151
 Financial Management Techniques 152
 Relevant Excel Functionality 153
 Creating Data Tables 153
 Cleaning Data 156
 Demonstration Exercise 159
 Case Facts 159
 Descriptive Analytics 159
 Step 1: Identify the Fields Needed to Answer the Question 167
 Step 2: Put the Fields in Rows and Columns 167
 Step 3: Determine the Type of Values Function 167
 Step 4: Select a Field for the Values Function 167
 Step 5: Numeric Format for Results 167
 Diagnostic Analytics 172
 Some Additional Analytic Functions with Power Pivot 172
Part 3: Decisions Made about the Past Feedback 187
Chapter 9: Financial Dashboard Decisions 189
 Background Theory 190
 Some Common Financial Measures 190
 Some Dashboard Principles 190
 Financial Management Techniques 191
 Relevant Excel Functionality 191
 Demonstration Exercise 191
 Step 1: Create the Database 192
 Step 2: Create the Data Engine 192
 Step 3: Create the References 195
 Step 4: Create the Dashboard 195
 About Power BI (Business Intelligence) 200
 Demonstration Exercise 201
 Loading Power BI 201
 Using Power BI 206
 Using Power Query 206
 Creating Data Visualizations 213
 Current Ratio Metric 222
 Profitability Metric 228
 Cash Flow Metric 228
 Return on Equity Metric 233
 Sales and Income Trends 233
Chapter 10: Budget Management Decisions 241
 Background Theory 242
 Budget Development 242
 Budget Management 243
 Cash Flow Budgets 243
 Financial Management Techniques 243
 Relevant Excel Functionality 244
 Demonstration Exercise 244
 Case Facts 244
 Preparing the Income Statement Budget 245
 Preparing the Monthly Income Statement Budget 245
 Preparing the Cash Flow Budget 245
 Preparing the Analysis of Variances 245
Chapter 11: Amortization Table Decisions 259
 Background Theory 260
 Corporate Bonds 260
 Bank Borrowing 260
 Property, Plant, and Equipment 260
 Financial Management Techniques 261
 Using MS-Excel Functionality 261
 Demonstration Exercise 261
 Corporate Bonds 261
 Bank Borrowing 263
 Property, Plant, and Equipment 263
Part 4: Decisions Made in Time Putting It All Together 275
Chapter 12: Making a Lot of Decisions 277
 Background Theory 277
 (Capstone) Demonstration Exercise 277
 Case Facts 278
Appendix 1 Excel Shortcut Keys 321
Appendix 2 Common Financial Ratios 325
Index 327

About the Author

Snapshot

Ron Messer is a faculty member of the School of Business at Kwantlen Polytechnic University whose research interests focus broadly on management accounting and decision making. A graduate of six universities, Ron holds undergraduate and graduate degrees in both public and business administration. He is a CPA, a Chartered Accountant, and a Certified Management Accountant with 25 years of working experience in accounting, finance, and information systems. His essays have appeared in publications in Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

Key Research

Ron Messer's primary areas of interest include organizational strategy, financial planning, and supply chain management (with an emphasis on logistics). To this end, he has published in peer-reviewed academic journals (14 essays), industry-specific journals (six articles), chapters in authoritative texts (four chapters in four books), and business case studies (two teaching cases).

Organizational Strategy

Based on his strategy research, Ron developed a method for charging airport landing and terminal fees that optimizes the social welfare for both the traveling public and private sector operators. In conjunction with this work, Ron also proposed a pricing framework for private sector airports. With respect to the public sector, he suggested a renewed focus on organizational vision, whereby the government adopts private sector values in the delivery of its services.

Financial Planning

In the area of financial planning, Ron proposed a budgeting method that eliminates many of the problems encountered when companies prepare their annual financial plan. He also created a process for identifying budget “cheaters,” which allows for the creation of more realistic business plans and avoids the inefficient allocation of corporate capital.

Supply Chain Management

In an essay written almost two decades ago (“Airports, Air Cargo and the Internet”), Ron outlines the possible effects of e-commerce on airports as logistics hubs in the supply chain. In this paper, Ron predicts that Internet-enabled business models will lead to increased air cargo and possible on-airport manufacturing facilities. Recent evidence surrounding the development at Indian airports (with the production of off-patent pharmaceuticals), the United Parcel Services aviation group (servicing laptop computers), and the many “fulfillment” centers under construction at, or near, airports (Amazon) provides evidence to support this hypothesis.

Impact of Research

Ron Messer's essays on supply chain management and logistics describe the impact of e-commerce on aviation globally. In the area of organizational strategy, Ron has proposed a way in which university business programs can distinguish themselves and become world-class institutions.

Overall, Ron's research is helping to develop strategies so that governments can deliver public services more effectively, including airports operating in deregulated environments. His work is influencing the way private and public institutions operate by proposing efficient methods that are globally relevant.

What's Next?

Ron recently published a business case that was used as part of a competition for management accounting students across the United States, along with teaching notes. He has also completed a paper that discusses enhanced teaching methods for management accounting. His most ambitious project to date is examining decision making in speculative markets to understand the underlying mechanisms that govern participant behaviors. This involves analyzing large data sets and developing several heuristic models.

Check out Ron online at:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ron-messer-464878b6/?ppe=1

and

Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.ca/citations?user=K95HjQMAAAAJ&hl=en

Brief Summary

This book was written with two objectives in mind:

  1. To be useful for making business decisions.

  2. To show how MS-Excel can be applied to making these decisions.

It is the type of publication that I wish I had when I was learning how to use this popular spreadsheet package. For the most part, the training I received was disjointed, lacked focus, and did not establish a context for using MS-Excel; for example, how to develop a financial model to decide whether to pursue a business opportunity. For this reason, the starting point for each chapter is a business decision that needs to be made. Each decision is supported by the relevant accounting/finance theory, and then (and only then) is Excel introduced as a tool for addressing a management problem. This process reverses the method commonly used for teaching Excel, where the functionality is demonstrated and then applied to a disparate set of case facts – an approach that incorrectly attempts to find a problem for a solution.

This book provides accounting students in post-secondary institutions with an advanced level understanding of how to use MS-Excel. It reflects real-life applications of this important analytical tool, which has become the industry standard for spreadsheet software. The text focuses on using MS-Excel in situations encountered by accounting and finance students and professionals; these are contextualized in terms of the past, present, and future and reflect a typical operating cycle, which includes initial planning, followed by exercising control, and is completed when feedback is received.

The book also addresses the growing need for data analytic skills (i.e., “big data”) and the recent innovations by MS-Excel in this regard, including Power Query (data cleaning and management), Power Pivot (advanced pivot tables using databases), and Power BI (creating executive KPI dashboards). However, while data analytics is important in financial management, it must be remembered that it forms only part of the larger picture that is captured by financial modeling.

The Excel ‘shell’ files that are used in conjunction with the financial modeling exercises shown in this book are available through the Emerald Publishing website. The completed solutions for the financial models can also be found there.

The Excel files are located at URL: : https://bit.ly/finmod2020

Preface

All companies use some type of spreadsheet application in the day-to-day operation of their Accounting and Finance departments. This can be as a stand-alone tool (e.g., mortgage calculator; amortization schedule), or – particularly for smaller companies – a significant part of their financial systems (e.g., payroll application; inventory subledger). For this reason, acquiring competencies in MS-Excel will be extremely valuable for students when they are applying for jobs and will help them tremendously during their employment interviews. Robert Half, the finance and accounting recruiting specialists, have noted in their most recent employer survey that advanced level knowledge of MS-Excel if one of the most sought-after skills by prospective hiring managers.

So, why do we need another textbook on using MS-Excel for business? Unlike previous publications that have focused primarily on management science applications, this text is specifically geared to business decisions that require financial modeling techniques used in Accounting and Finance departments. The applications discussed and models presented are based on the working experience of the author over his more than 25 years of employment in various areas of financial management. In addition, the text structures the practical usage of MS-Excel for decision making in the context of time: past, present, and future. In contrast, many books on this subject are relatively unstructured and dominated by esoteric and infrequently used applications of MS-Excel, primarily for academic audiences.

This text is ideally suited to a one-semester, senior undergraduate course of 14 weeks and addresses the competencies required by professional accounting associations, such as those offering the CPA and CMA designations. It covers the use of MS-Excel in:

  • Break-even analysis, for new venture decisions

  • Time series forecasting, for sales demand decisions

  • Capital budgeting, for major investment decisions

  • Regression analysis, for predictive analytics decisions

  • Linear programming, for product mix and scheduling decisions

  • Corporate valuations, for equity financing decisions

  • Data analytics, for customer buying decisions

  • KPIs using dashboards, for strategic decisions

  • Budget development, for performance management decisions

  • Amortization tables, for debt and asset management decisions

Each chapter can be covered in one weekly computer lab, with chapters one and two combined in the first session. This allows for 10 weeks of instruction, two mid-term tests, and one final exam. Chapter 12 integrates materials from the prior chapters and can be used as a stand-alone capstone project for students to complete.

Unique Aspects of this Book

This book is different from similar publications in several respects.

Focus on Accounting and Finance: Most texts that cover using MS-Excel for business address management science applications and do not deal specifically with accounting and finance situations. This book will be valuable to both accounting students as well as financial management professionals for making business decisions.

Practical applications: The content of this book will be immediately relevant to students and practitioners who are, or will be, dealing with similar situations in their professional work. For example, using capital budgeting models to make billion-dollar investment decisions, or developing corporate valuation models to price shares for an IPO.

Real-life examples: The Excel functionality used in decision making is based on the author's more than 25 years of financial management experience. The text will address common business decisions made by financial management professionals.

Decision-making emphasis: Employers want their newly hired employees to assist them in guiding the company. The focus of the book is on making sound business decisions that provide value for the enterprise.

Employer demand: Based on feedback received from our university's alumni and those who hire our graduates, companies increasingly want their employees to have advanced level MS-Excel skills. This book addresses that need. Feedback from our degree holders tells us that the organizations that employ them are impressed with their knowledge of MS-Excel.

The book addresses the day-to-day work done by Accounting and Finance staff in a company. This is illustrated in the table below, which shows how everyday business decisions relate to the accounting and finance concepts addressed in the topical coverage in the text (Table 1).

Table 1.

Everyday Business Decisions Covered in this Book.

Business Decisions Accounting/Finance Concepts Book Topics (and Chapters)
New business venture Cost-Volume-Profit analysis Break-even models (Chapter 2)
Long-term planning Financial forecasts Time series forecasting (Chapter 3)
Major investment NPV, IRR, payback period Capital budgeting models (Chapter 4)
Predicting the future Data analytics Regression analysis (Chapter 5)
Product pricing Cost-Volume-Profit analysis Linear programming (Chapter 6)
Financial reporting Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Corporate valuations (Chapter 7)
Equity financing Business valuations Corporate valuations (Chapter 7)
Interpreting financial information
  • Descriptive analytics

  • Diagnostic analytics

Data analytics (Chapter 8)
Performance measurement Key performance indicators KPIs and Dashboards (Chapter 9)
Corporate strategy Pro-forma financial statements KPIs and dashboards (Chapter 9)
Cash management Cash budgeting Budget management (Chapter 10)
Budget management Responsibility accounting and variance analysis Operating budgets (Chapter 10)
Debt financing Bond/loan pricing and amortization Amortization tables (Chapter 11)

The book is also different from competing publications because it addresses real-life business situations that the author has encountered during his more than 25 years of work experience. This is summarized in the table below, along with references to the related MS-Excel functionality that is used in the demonstration exercises in the book (Table 2).

Table 2.

Everyday Business Decisions and Real-life Examples.

Business Decisions Real Life Examples Using MS-Excel MS-Excel Functionality (UPPERCASE Lettering)
New business ventures I have developed financial models to assess the profitability of new business opportunities. Cost-volume-profit models using GOAL SEEK, DATA TABLES, and SCENARIOS
Long-term planning I have used forecasting techniques to estimate corporate revenues. Forecasting techniques in the ANALYSIS TOOLPACK MOVING AVERAGE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Major investments I have created capital budgeting models for multimillion-dollar land development projects in both domestic and foreign locations. NPV, IRR
Predicting the future I have developed a predictive model, using linear regression techniques, for an organization's program spending. ANALYSIS TOOLPACK: REGRESSION
Product pricing I developed a process for pricing the use of airport facilities by using linear programming techniques. Using SOLVER to optimize product/service pricing
Financial reporting I have created a monthly management reporting system that monitored corporate performance in relation to an organization's budget. Variance analysis and FORECAST functions were used
Equity financing I have published an essay that deals with the use of equity financing for private airports. Using PIVOT TABLES to analyze various financial datasets
Interpreting financial information I have prepared analytical reports, based on information obtained from a large data warehouse, using advanced data analysis tools (i.e., Hyperion and Essbase software that interfaced with MS-Excel) PIVOT TABLES and BI (Business Intelligence) tools were used
Performance measurement I have identified key performance indicators (KPIs) for monthly reporting to senior management. Creating executive dashboards, using PIVOT TABLES, SLICER and SPARKLINES functions
Corporate strategy I was involved in developing a strategic plan for a subsidiary of a large business. I have also authored essays on corporate strategy. Employed ANALYSIS TOOLPACK forecasting using MOVING AVERAGE and EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING techniques
Cash management I have been responsible for managing multi-million-dollar cash portfolios, through purchases of R1 and R2 rated short-term commercial paper. Created a financial model (using Excel GRAPHICS) to match risk with return on a portfolio of investments
Budget management I have developed and managed multi-million-dollar operating and capital budgets for several organizations. Amalgamated cost center budgets using the CONSOLIDATION function along with PIVOT TABLES tools
Debt financing I have published an essay dealing with the use of debt financing in relation to residual and compensatory airport pricing models. Various financial functions: NPV, IRR, PV, FV, RATE along with SOLVER

Organization of this Book

The book is organized around three dimensions relating to the decisions made by accounting and finance students and professionals, including: (1) time frame, (2) accounting cycle, and (3) financial analytics.

  1. The decision context based on time frame includes the future, present, and past. Note that the normal chronological sequence has been reversed in this book to better align with the accounting cycle.

  2. The accounting cycle includes distinct phases for planning (future orientation), control (thinking about the present), and feedback (using what has been learned from the past).

  3. Decisions based on the future allow businesses to make plans – using predictive analytics. Decisions made in the present emphasize control, since they guide day-to-day actions – using descriptive analytics. Decisions using past information are reflective and give feedback about the effectiveness of plans in relation to actual results – using diagnostic analytics.

This schema is shown below and reflected in the chapter sequence of the table of contents. The dimension columns are organized according to the time frame in which the decisions are made. They include the applicable part of the accounting cycle and the related financial analytic techniques. The financial models discussed in the book are also listed, based on the applicable time frame and stage of the accounting cycle to which they relate (Table 3).

Table 3.

Aligning Financial Modeling Dimensions with the Decision-making Context.

Modeling Dimensions Decision-making Context
Time frame
  • Future

  • Present

  • Past

Accounting Cycle
  • Planning

  • Control

  • Feedback

Financial Analytics
  • Predictive analytics

  • Descriptive analytics

  • Diagnostic analytics

Financial Models
  • Break-even

  • Time-series forecasts

  • Capital budgeting

  • Regression analysis

  • Linear programming

  • Business valuation

  • Pivot tables

  • Financial dashboards

  • Budget management

  • Amortization tables

This book is designed for advanced Excel applications and therefore students require an intermediate level knowledge of the software, focused primarily on the functional aspects of using Excel. This will include coverage of the following topics. 1

Working with Excel Tables, Pivot Tables, and Pivot Charts:

  • Explore a structured range of data

  • Freezing rows and columns

  • Creating an Excel table

  • Plan and create an Excel table

  • Rename and format an Excel table

  • Add, edit, and delete records in an Excel table

  • Sort/Filter data

  • Insert a Total row to summarize an Excel table

  • Split a worksheet into two panes

  • Insert subtotals into a range of data

  • Use the Outline buttons to show and hide details

  • Create and modify a Pivot Table

  • Apply Pivot Tables styles and formatting

  • Filter and sort a Pivot Table

  • Insert a slicer to filter a Pivot Table

  • Group Pivot Table items (Home Group/Group Field)

  • Create a Pivot Chart

Managing Multiple Worksheets and Workbooks:

  • Create a worksheet group

  • Format and edit multiple worksheets at once

  • Create cell references to other worksheets

  • Consolidate information from multiple worksheets using 3-D references

  • Create and print a worksheet group

  • Create a link to data in another workbook

  • Create and print a worksheet group

  • Create a link to data in another workbook

  • How to edit links

  • Create and use an Excel workspace

  • Insert a hyperlink in a cell

Developing an Excel Application:

  • Create, edit, and delete defined names for cells and ranges

  • Paste a list of defined names as documentation

  • Use defined names in formulas

  • Add defined names to existing formulas

  • Create valid rules for data entry

  • Protect the contents of worksheets and workbooks

  • Add, edit, and delete comments

  • Macros (create, save)

Working with Advanced Functions:

  • Working with Logical functions (IF, AND, and OR)

  • Working with comparison operators such as <, <=, = <>, >, or >= to compare two values

  • Inserting calculated columns in an Excel Table

  • Using structured references in formulas (Fully qualified and Unqualified)

  • Nest the IF function

  • Using the VLOOKUP and HLOOKUP functions (to find approximate and exact match)

  • Use the IFERROR function

  • Use conditional formatting to highlight values

  • COUNTIF, SUMIF, AVERAGEIF

Exploring Financial Tools and Functions:

  • Work with financial functions such as FV, PV, RATE, NPER, and PMT

  • Interpolate and extrapolate a series of values (Home Editing Fill Series)

  • Determine a payback period

  • Calculate a net present value (NPV) and an internal rate of return (IRR)

Performing What-If Analysis (Data, Data Tools, What-If Analysis):

  • Perform what-if analysis with Goal Seek, Data Table, Scenario Manager, and Solver.

  • Use Goal Seek to calculate a solution (Goal Seek)

  • Create a one-variable data table (Data Table)

  • Create a two-variable data table (Data Table)

  • Create and apply different Excel scenarios (Scenario Manager)

  • Generate a scenario summary report

  • Generate a scenario PivotTable report

  • Run Solver to calculate optimal solutions (Data Table)

  • Create and apply constraints to a Solver model

  • Save and load a Solver model

Connecting to External Data:

  • Import data from a text file (Data, Get External Data, From Text)

  • Working with connections and external data ranges (Data, Connections group)

  • Define a trusted location

Collaborating on a Shared Workbook:

  • Integrating Excel with Other Office Applications

  • Understanding copying and pasting, linking, and embedding objects into Word document

  • Linking Excel and Word Files

  • Updating a linked object

  • Embedding an object

  • Modifying an Embedded Object

With these topics as a foundation, the text incorporates more advanced functionality into decision making for accounting and finance students and professionals.

1

The list of topics covered for an intermediate-level knowledge of Excel was supplied to me by my colleague, Richard Wong, who is a faculty member in the School of Business at Kwantlen Polytechnic University.