(2019), "Prelims", Das, R.C. (Ed.) The Impacts of Monetary Policy in the 21st Century: Perspectives from Emerging Economies, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. i-xxxvii. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78973-319-820191002
Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2019 Emerald Publishing Limited
THE IMPACTS OF MONETARY POLICY IN THE 21ST CENTURY
THE IMPACTS OF MONETARY POLICY IN THE 21ST CENTURY: PERSPECTIVES FROM EMERGING ECONOMIES
Ramesh Chandra Das
Vidyasagar University, India
United Kingdom – North America – Japan – India – Malaysia – China
Emerald Publishing Limited
Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK
First edition 2019
Copyright © 2019 Emerald Publishing Limited
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ISBN: 978-1-78973-320-4 (Print)
ISBN: 978-1-78973-319-8 (Online)
ISBN: 978-1-78973-321-1 (Epub)
The book is dedicated to my
Mother who left all of us in the Holy Rashapurnima this year
|List of Figures||xi|
|List of Tables||xiii|
|About the Editor||xix|
|About the Contributors||xxi|
|N. R. Bhanumurthy*||xxix|
|Section I: Monetary Policy Effects at the Global Perspectives|
|Chapter 1: Determining the Effects of Monetary Policies on Capital Markets of the Emerging Economies: An Evidence from E7 Countries|
|Hasan Dinçer, SerhatYüksel and Zafer Adalı||3|
|Chapter 2: A Theoretical Appraisal of the Inflation–Output Dynamics Under Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy|
|Mainak Bhattacharjee and Debashis Mazumdar||17|
|Chapter 3: Measuring the Effectiveness of Official Development Assistance on the Economic Growth of Developing Countries: A 2009–2013 Analysis|
|Enrico Ivaldi and Marta Santagata||33|
|Chapter 4: The Link between Monetary Policy and Assets Prices in Nigeria|
|Ezebuilo Romanus Ukwueze, Oliver Ejike Ogbonna, Henry Thomas Asogwa and Ozoemena Stanley Nwodo||47|
|Chapter 5: Negative and Low Deposit Rates and Penalty on Savers|
|Chapter 6: Re-examining Stock Market Efficiency in Nigeria Using Nonlinear Unit Root Tests|
|Adedoyin Isola Lawal; Afees Adebayo Salisu; Russell Olukayode Somoye; Abiola Ayopo Babajide and Joseph Niyan Taiwo||75|
|Chapter 7: Optimal Monetary Policy Instruments for Nigeria|
|Richardson Kojo Edeme, Chinedu Uche Erobu and Aduku Ebikabowei Biedomo||89|
|Chapter 8: Monetary Policies in the 21st Century’s World: Causes, Effects, and Recommendations|
|Sourav Kumar Das||109|
|Chapter 9: Globalization and Inflation in Developing Asia|
|Rishab Das, Madhabendra Sinha, Anjan Ray Chaudhury and Partha Pratim Sengupta||121|
|Section II: Aspects of Monetary Policy in Emerging Economies with Special Focus on Indian Economy|
|Chapter 10: Effects of Demonetization, Clinical Establishment Act, and Media News on Medical Tourism: An Exploratory Study in West Bengal|
|Rabin Mazumder and Prabal Chakraborty||133|
|Chapter 11: Interrelationships among Financial Development, Growth Rate, and Trade Openness: Study for USA, China, and India|
|Chapter 12: Interaction between the Formal and Informal Financial Sectors and its Implications on Monetary Policy: Experiences from Indian Economy|
|Chapter 13: Global Financial Crisis: A Study of its Impact on Select S&P BSE Sensex Companies in India During 2005–2013|
|Soumita Mukherjee and Ashish Kumar Sana||175|
|Chapter 14: The Efficiency of Indian Commercial Banking Industry: A Comparison of Service Oriented Production Vis-á-Vis Financial Intermediation Approach|
|Bishan Sanyal, Swati Ghosh and Buddhadeb Chandra||197|
|Chapter 15: An Investigation into India’s Move Toward Emerging Contours of New Monetary Policy Framework|
|Asim Kumar Karmakar and Sebak Kumar Jana||211|
|Chapter 16: India’s Demonetization, 2016: Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Consequences|
|Anusree Chakraborty and Supravat Bagli||223|
|Chapter 17: How to Fulfill the Objectives of Control of Money Supply, Growth, and Inflation Targeting?: A Peep into the Emerging Contour of India’s Monetary Policy|
|Sovik Mukherjee and Asim Kumar Karmakar||241|
|Chapter 18: Determinants of Operating Efficiency of Commercial Banks in India: Insights from Panel Regression Model|
|Swati Ghosh and Bishan Sanyal||253|
|Chapter 19: Role of Monetary Policy on Generating Output and Price Stability in India: An Investigation|
|Chapter 20: Global Liquidity – A Review of Concepts, Measurement, and Effect on Asset Prices: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact on the Indian Stock Market|
|Suchismita Bose and Somnath Chattopadhyay||277|
|Chapter 21: Role of the Monetary Policy in India During the Pre- and Post-global Crisis Era|
|Chapter 22: Marginal Cost Based Lending Rate: A Study on the New Regime of Lending Rate Pattern of the Banking Operations in India|
|Dipayan Singha, Antara Bhattacharyya and Amit Majumdar||301|
|Chapter 23: Monetary Policy of RBI and Its Impact on the Financial Inclusion in Rural India|
|Mainak Bhattacharjee, Debashis Mazumdar and Santanu Bisai||313|
|Chapter 24: Monetary Policy and Corporate Performance in India: “Inside the Black Box Thinking”|
|Aishwarya Nagpal and Megha Jain||325|
|Chapter 25: Monetary Policy in a Global Economy and the Indian Overall Experience|
|Somnath Karmakar and Subhajit Majumder||339|
|Chapter 26: Impact of Monetary Policy on Indian Economic Growth and Price Stability in the 21st Century: An Exploratory Study|
|Chapter 27: Credit Insurance under Different Policy Regimes and Associated Risk of Crisis|
|Ashu Tiwari, Archana Patro and Soniya Mohil||361|
List of Figures
|Figure 1.||The Baseline Model in AD-AS Framework.||20|
|Figure 2.||The Phase Diagrams.||22|
|Figure 3.||The Policy Effects.||26|
|Figure 4.||The Path of Adjustments in Inflation Rate and Output.||27|
|Figure 5.||Adjustments in Expectations.||28|
|Figure 6.||Adjustments in Inflation Rate and Output Due to Some Supply Side Disturbances.||29|
|Figure 1.||Downfall of Interest Rates in the Last Five Years.||67|
|Figure A1.||VAR Stability Test for the Countries. Source: Sketched by the authors on the basis of the data of World Bank and IMF.||160|
|Figure 1.||Sequence of Borrowers Choice of a Financial Institution.||166|
|Figure 2.||Mechanism of Expansion of Formal Credit on Informal Credit Market.||168|
|Figure 1.||Currency–Deposit Plot.||225|
|Figure A1.||Impulse Responses for the Concerned Variables.||238|
|Figure 1.||Modified Impossible Trinity.||242|
|Figure 1.||Trends of Log values of GDP, Money Supply, and Inflation Rate.||271|
|Figure A1.||Trends in Stock of Global Cross-Border Credit (USD trillion) and the BSE Sensex.||287|
|Figure A2.||Trends in Stock of Global Credit (USD Trillion) and the BSE Sensex.||287|
|Figure B1.||Trends in Growth of Global Cross-border Credit (Year-on-Year, %) and the BSE Sensex.||288|
|Figure B2.||Trends in Growth of Global Cross-border Credit and BSE Returns (Year-on-Year, %).||288|
|Figure C1.||Trends in Growth of US Cross-border Credit (Year-on-Year, %) and the BSE Sensex.||289|
|Figure C2.||Trends in Growth of US Cross-border Credit (Year-on-Year, %) and BSE Returns.||289|
|Figure 1.||Inflation Rates During 2007–2008 to 2013–2014.||295|
|Figure 2.||Actual Inflation and Inflation Expectation (2013–2018).||295|
|Figure 1.||Flow of Bank Loan to SHGs in India During 1992–2018 under SHG-Bank Linkage Schemes.||317|
|Figure 2.||Credit Flow Per 1,000 SHGs across Six Broad Regions of India.||321|
|Figure 1.||Cumulative Sum of Recursive Residuals Test.||347|
|Figure 2.||Cumulative Sum of Squares of Recursive Residuals Test.||347|
|Figure 1.||(A) World’s Trade Credit Insurance Market During Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2008. (B) The Monetary Policy of G7 Economies and Output Loss During GFC 2008.||362|
|Figure 2.||G7 Economies’ Trade Credit Insurance Market During GFC 2008.||363|
|Figure 3.||Impact of the GFC on Foreign Participation and Gross Premium Growth Rate.||364|
List of Tables
|Table 1.||Literature Review of Monetary Policies and Capital Market.||5|
|Table 2.||Pedroni Panel Cointegration Analysis Results.||11|
|Table 3.||Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality Analysis Results.||12|
|Table 1.||Unit Root and Order of Integration.||29|
|Table 2.||Inflation Rate Dynamics and Change in Policy Regime||30|
|Table 1.||OLS Estimates Model 1.||40|
|Table 2.||OLS Estimates Model 2.||41|
|Table 3.||Stepwise Regression (Direction = Forward).||42|
|Table 1.||Decomposition of Fluctuations Caused to Monetary Policy Rate Shock.||53|
|Table 1.||How Much the Bank Pays to the Client or Depositor at 10% p.a.?||69|
|Table 1.||Descriptive Statistics.||80|
|Table 2.||Linearity of Unit Root Test and Univariate Nonlinear Unit Root Tests.||82|
|Table 3.||Narayan and Liu (2015) GARCH (1, 1) Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks in the Intercepts.||83|
|Table 1.||Result of Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philips–Perron Unit Root Tests.||99|
|Table 2.||Error Correction Estimates of the Short-run and Long-run ARDL Model (the IS Equation 22) and (the LM Equation 23).||101|
|Table 3.||Short-run Parameters of the IS Equation and LM Equation and Variances and Standard Deviations of the Residuals of the Respective Equations.||102|
|Table 1.||Global Economic Outlook for 2009 (%).||113|
|Table 1.||Results of LLC (2002) and IPS (2003) Panel Unit Root Tests.||126|
|Table 2.||GMM Estimation of the Impact of Globalization on Inflation.||127|
|Table 1.||Variables in the Model.||136|
|Table 2.||Relationship between Number of Medical Tourists and Explanatory Variables.||138|
|Table 3.||Group Statistics.||140|
|Table 4.||Tests of Equality of Group Means.||141|
|Table 1A.||Standardized Canonical Discriminant Function Coefficients.||145|
|Table 1B.||Classification Results.||145|
|Table 1.||Unit Roots Test Results for Financial Development, Growth Rate, and Trade Share.||152|
|Table 2.||Johansen Cointegration Test Results.||153|
|Table 3.||VAR for USA and China.||154|
|Table 4.||VAR Granger Causality Test Results for USA and China.||155|
|Table 1.||Interaction between Formal and Informal Financial Institutions in Selected Countries.||163|
|Table 2.||Changing Scenario of Informal Financing Sources.||170|
|Table 1.||Closing Descriptive Statistics During Pre, Crisis, and Post-crisis Period of Company Equity Prices & Sensex & DIJA.||180|
|Table 2.||Pre, Crisis, and Post Period Stationarity Test Result and Johensan Cointegration Test Results.||182|
|Table 3.||Regression Results.||183|
|Table A1.||Pre-period Closing Descriptive Statistics.||188|
|Table A2.||Crisis Period Closing Descriptive Statistics.||189|
|Table A3.||Post-crisis Period Closing Descriptive Statistics.||190|
|Table A4.||Pre, Crisis, and Post Period Correlation between Sensex and Companies’ Return.||191|
|Table A5.||Pre, Crisis, and Post Period Stationarity Test Results.||192|
|Table A6.||Pre, Crisis, and Post-period Johensan Cointegration Test Results.||193|
|Table A7.||Pre Period.||194|
|Table A8.||Crisis Period.||195|
|Table A9.||Post Period.||196|
|Table 1.||Financial Intermediation Approach.||201|
|Table 2.||Service Oriented Production Approach.||202|
|Table 3.||Malmquist Index Summary of Firm Means: Combined Table of Production vis-á-vis Intermediation Approach.||204|
|Table 1.||Changes in CRR in India During the Period from 1962 to 2018.||216|
|Table A1.||Definitions of the Variables.||233|
|Table A2.||Model Specification Results.||234|
|Table A3.||Result of VAR Estimates.||235|
|Table A4.||Granger Causality among the Variables indifferent Groups.||237|
|Table 1.||Unit Root Results and Pairwise Granger Causality Results.||248|
|Table 2.||Cointegration Results.||250|
|Table 1.||Panel Regression Results of the Appropriate Fixed-effect Model.||258|
|Table 1.||Movements in Bank Rate During 1991–2015.||270|
|Table 2.||Unit Roots Test Results.||272|
|Table 3.||Granger Causality Test Results.||272|
|Table 1.||Effect of Global Liquidity on BSE Sensex.||283|
|Table A1.||Results of Unit Root Test (ADF).||300|
|Table B1.||Results of Estimated Equation.||300|
|Table 1.||MCLR Rates of UBI and SBI for the Past Six Months.||305|
|Table 2.||MCLR Rates of HDFC and Axis Bank for the Past Six Months.||306|
|Table 3.||Correlation between SBI and UBI Rates.||307|
|Table 4.||Regression Results.||308|
|Table A1.||Paired Samples Statistics.||311|
|Table A2.||Paired Samples Test.||311|
|Table B1.||Paired t-Test Results.||312|
|Table 1.||Unit Root Test Results.||318|
|Table 2.||Co-integration Test Results.||319|
|Table 3.||Impact of Monetary Policy on Credit Extension to SHGs.||320|
|Table 1.||Variables Used in the Empirical Investigation.||330|
|Table 2.||Correlation Matrix.||332|
|Table 3.||Two-stage Panel Fixed Effects Estimation.||334|
|Table A1.||Breakdown of Sample Firms by Ownership Group and Legal Form.||338|
|Table B1.||Descriptive Statistics.||338|
|Table 1.||ADF and PP Unit Root Tests.||345|
|Table 2.||ARDL Bounds Tests and ECM–ARDL Test Results.||346|
|Table A1.||Frequency of Changes in Monetary Instruments in India (2001–2002 to 2017–2018).||350|
|Table 1.||Some Key Monetary Indicators Since 2010.||355|
|Table 2.||Growth Rate of GDP (Sector Wise) in India.||357|
|Table 3.||Summary Output of Regression and ANOVA.||359|
About the Editor
Ramesh Chandra Das, Ph.D., is currently Associate Professor of Economics at Vidyasagar University, India with 20 years of teaching and research experience in different fields of the subject. He has obtained Masters, M.Phil., and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from the University of Calcutta. He has contributed several research papers to national and international journals with reputations along with completions of three minor research projects sponsored by UGC, India. He has written text books on microeconomics and macroeconomics for different fields of students and academicians in economics and several edited books with national and international publishers.
About the Contributors
Zafer Adalı is currently Research Assistant at the Department of Economics, Artvin Çoruh University, Turkey with experience of research in the related fields of economics and finance.
Henry Thomas Asogwa has M.Sc. in Economics from University of Nigeria, and is currently a Ph.D. Student at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka in Anambra State, Nigeria.
Abiola Ayoopo Babajide, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Finance at Covenant University, Nigeria. She has published extensively in reputable journals like Economic Bulletin, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, among others. Her research focuses on development finance.
Supravat Bagli is Associate Professor of Economics, Presidency University, Kolkata, India with experience of teaching more than a decade. He did his Ph.D. in Economics from Burdwan University, West Bengal in 2011. He published 40 research papers in different reputed journals and books.
Mainak Bhattacharjee has completed his Master Degree in Economics from Jadavpur University Kolkata, West Bengal (India). He is currently teaching at Loreto House, Kolkata as an Assistant Professor in Economics. His areas of interest with regard to research are Macroeconomics, International Economics and Game Theory.
Antara Bhattacharyya is presently a Ph.D. Scholar of Economics at Jadavpur University, India. She has completed graduation from Bethune College, postgraduation from West Bengal State University, M.Phil. at Jadavpur University, India, and worked as a Data Analyst in ISEC, Bangalore, Population Research Center. Currently she is working as a College Contractual Lecturer in Commerce at Bijoy Krishna Girls’ college, Howrah, India.
Rajib Bhattacharyya, Faculty in Dept. of Economics, Goenka College, Kolkata, India. He has more than 18 years of teaching experience at undergraduate and nine years at the postgraduate level. He has several publications at both national and international levels. His latest publications include international journals and Handbooks from IGI Global and Emerald.
Aduku Ebikabowei Biedomo obtained his M.Sc. Economics from University of Nigeria. He is currently a Ph.D. student in the Department of Economics, Nnmadi Azikiwe University, Awka-Nigeria. His research interest focuses on Public finance, Health economics, and Applied microeconomics.
Santanu Bisai, Ph.D., is working as an Assistant Professor in Economics at Syamaprasad College, Kolkata, West Bengal (India). His fields of interests are agricultural and rural economics, and microfinance. He has contributed a good number of articles in national and international journals.
Suchismita Bose received her doctoral degree in Quantitative Economics from the Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata. She was an Economist at ICRA’s Project on Money & Finance for almost two decades, and a major contributor to the ICRA Bulletin Money & Finance. She is now the Chief Economist at SURGE Research Support.
Avijit Brahmachary, Ph.D., is now working as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics, Barrackpore Rastraguru Surendranath College, Barrackpore, India. He has a number of publications in different journals and books in national and international level. He is interested in microfinance, behavioral finance and other emerging discipline related with economics and finance.
Anusree Chakraborty works as an Analyst at Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, Kolkata, India. She completed her B.Sc. and M.Sc. in Applied Economics from Presidency University, Kolkata in the year 2018. She is a Gold Medalist in her Master degree courses and also university topper in her B.Sc. first year.
Prabal Chakraborty is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at NSHM Knowledge Campus Durgapur in the Management Department. He worked in different multinationals as well as Indian companies at Managerial level. He has more than 17 years of corporate experience along with five years of academic experience. His research interest is Marketing and Healthcare Management.
Buddhadeb Chandra, Ph.D., is currently Associate Professor of Commerce, Goenka College of Commerce and Business Administration under the University of Calcutta. He is also associated with IGNOU as a Counselor in the Schools of Management Studies. He completed his M.Phil. and Ph.D. from University of Burdwan. He completed a Minor Research Project sponsored by UGC, India.
Somnath Chattopadhyay, Ph.D., is presently serving as an Assistant Professor of Economics in Kandra Radha Kanta Kundu Mahavidyalaya, affiliated to the University of Burdwan, India. Previously he served as an Economist at ICRA’s Project on Money & Finance and received his doctoral degree from the Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata. He is an Active Researcher in the field of Applied Econometrics.
Anjan Ray Chaudhury, Ph.D., is Senior Assistant Professor in Economics at Durgapur Government College, West Bengal, India. He obtained his Master degree and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Calcutta. He got the Research Fellowship offered by University Grants Commission and worked as a full-time Research Fellow at the Institute of Development Studies, Kolkata. He has the credit of 18 years teaching and research experience. His research interests are development economics, advanced econometrics, etc.
Koushik Das, Ph.D., is presently Assistant Professor in Economics in Shyampur Siddheswari Mahavidyalaya, affiliated to University of Calcutta and Guest Lecturer in the Department of Commerce, University of Calcutta. His research interests include international economics, econometric methods, and financial development.
Rishab Das is currently a B.Tech Student in Computer Science and Engineering at National Institute of Technology Durgapur, India. He has the credit of the publications of three research papers in economics area till now. His research interests include data analytics, machine learning and macroeconomics, etc.
Sourav Kumar Das teaches Economics at the Lalbaba College, Howrah, India. Currently he is working on rural development, tribal livelihood, consumption pattern, and terrorism. He also edited books on tribal development, issues on globalization.
Hasan Dinçer, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Finance at Istanbul Medipol University, Istanbul, Turkey. He has more than 100 scientific articles and some of them are indexed in SSCI. He is also Editor of many different books published by Springer and IGI Global.
Richardson Kojo Edeme is a Lecturer in the Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, where he teaches and supervises students at undergraduate and postgraduate levels. His research interest public economics and policy, applied microeconomics and macroeconomics, industrial/trade policies, health economics, and human development.
Chinedu Uche Erobu is an M.Sc. Student in the Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria with good academic records.
Jayabrata Ghosh is serving as Assistant Professor of Commerce at Ranaghat College, West Bengal, India, since 2006. He is the Teachers’ Representative Member of the Governing Body of Ranaghat College and also acting as Bursar of the college. He is also acting as Coordinator of IGNOU Regular Study Centre of Ranaghat College from its inception in 2014.
Swati Ghosh is presently working in Chakdaha College as part-time Lecturer in Economics besides having teaching experience at postgraduate level in Commerce Department at Hooghly Mohsin College, West Bengal, India. She is also pursuing Ph.D. work at Burdwan University on Financial Performance of selected commercial banks in India.
Enrico Ivaldi has the tenure of the course of Statistics at the Department of Political Science of the University of Genoa. He did Ph.D. in Applied Economics and Quantitative Methods at the University of Genoa. He has participated in many national research projects. Author of over 50 scientific publications. His research interests lie in social statistic.
Megha Jain is currently teaching as an Assistant Professor at Daulat Ram College, New Delhi, and is under pursual of her research in Management (Economics) from Faculty of Management Studies, University of Delhi, India. She is a Columnist in Fin Express and presented her various papers and research proposals at IIMs, IITs, and University level international conferences.
Sebak Kumar Jana, Ph.D., is currently Professor in Economics and Head of the Department of Economics with Rural Development, Vidyasagar University, West Bengal, India. His area of research includes environmental and resource economics and economics of education.
B. Janakiraman, Ph.D., is presently Professor in the Department of Management Studies, Nitte Meenakshi Institute of Technology, Mangalore, Karnataka, India. He holds, besides, different positions at the institute’s administrative bodies. He has several research articles published in reputed journals and books.
Asim Kumar Karmakar, Ph.D., is Assistant Professor in Economics, School of Professional Studies, Netaji Subhas Open University, Kolkata, India. He is presently the Executive Member of the Indian Economic Association (IEA) and The Indian Econometric Society (TIES).
Somnath Karmakar is currently Project Coordinator in a project titled “Empowering Small and Traditional Fisher People in West Bengal” at Society for DISHA, Kolkata, West Bengal, India. He has published several research articles in reputed journals, books, and seminar proceedings.
Arindam Laha, Ph.D. is currently teaching Economics at the Department of Commerce, The University of Burdwan, India, since 2009. He received Ph.D. degree from the University of Burdwan. His areas of research interest include agrarian institutions, financial inclusion, human development, and social and solidarity economy.
Adedoyin Isola Lawal, Ph.D., is Lecturer at the Department of Accounting and Finance, Landmark University, OmuAran, Nigeria. He has published extensively in reputable journals and reviews for a number of Journals like African Development Review (Wiley) and The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (Elsevier).
Amit Majumdar, M.Com, M.Phil., M.B.A. (Finance), Ph.D. (Com), Ph.D. (Commerce, CU), is presently working as an Assistant Professor of Commerce (St. III) and Head of the Dept. (UG & PG), Bijoy Krishna Girls’ College, Howrah since last 15 years. He is also a Visiting Faculty, Department of Commerce, University of Calcutta.
Subhajit Majumder is currently an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics, University of Gour Banga, West Bengal, India. He obtained his M.Phil. degree from Jadavpur University, Kolkata. He has published several research articles in reputed journals and edited books.
Debashis Mazumdar, Ph.D., presently Professor of Economics at The Heritage College, Kolkata, West Bengal (India). His fields of interests are microeconomics, development economics, and international trade and finance. He has contributed a good number of articles in national and international journals.
Rabin Mazumder, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Economics at Institute of Engineering & Management. He obtained M.Sc. in Economics and MBA in Marketing. He completed his Ph.D. in Business Management under University of Calcutta. He has over 15 years of academic and research experience.
Soniya Mohil is presently FPM Scholar in Finance & Accounting area at Indian Institute of Management, Rohtak, India. She has completed her MBA specialization in Finance and Marketing.
Soumita Mukherjee is currently working as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Commerce at Sabang Sajanikanta Mahavidyalaya, West Bengal, India. After completing M.Com from St. Xavier’s College and M.Phil. from University of Calcutta, she is currently pursuing Ph.D. from the latter. She has published papers in journals and in edited books.
Sovik Mukherjee is presently an Assistant Professor in Economics, Department of Commerce & Management Studies, St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata, India. His current research interests lie in the areas of applied game theory in industrial organization, economics of criminology and social sustainability, and applied growth econometrics.
Aishwarya Nagpal is currently a research scholar at FMS, Delhi University. She is pursuing her research in the area of International Finance. She has teaching experience with Daulat Ram College, New Delhi. She has presented her papers at various forums and many international publications in her credits.
Ozoemena Stanley Nwodo teaches undergraduate level Public Policy and Macroeconomics at Coal City University, Enugu Nigeria. He is a Ph.D. student in Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, with research interests in public sector economics, monetary economics, and international economics.
Oliver Ejike Ogbonna obtained M.Sc. in Economics. He is a young Lecturer in the Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka. His research interests include development economics, trade and investment, monetary economics, and financial economics.
Archana Patro, Ph.D., is presently an Assistant Professor in Finance and Accounting area at IIM Rohtak. She has done her Ph.D. from Indian Institute of Management Indore. Prior to that she has completed her MBA in Finance specialization and completed Bachelors in Physics Honors with distinction. Apart from this she has done her Diploma in IFRS from KPMG. She is Member and Student of Chartered Institute of Management Accountants.
Adebare Afees Salisu is an International Research Expert, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. He has published extensively in reputable journals worldwide.
Ashish Kumar Sana, Ph.D., is presently Professor of Commerce at The University of Calcutta. He has about 20 years of teaching and research experience and has a list of publications in reputed journals. Besides, he holds different executive positions in different universities, societies, and corporate houses.
Marta Santagata is a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at the University of Genoa, Italy, and she is a Teaching Assistant for Social Statistics at the Department of Political Sciences. She graduated with distinction in International Relation at the University of Pavia (M.Sc. in Economics, Politics, and International Institutions).
Bishan Sanyal, Ph.D., is currently Associate Professor of Economics at Sovarani Memorial College. He worked as Counselor in the Schools of Management Studies since last 10 years at IGNOU. He has presented papers at different national level seminars, workshops, etc., and contributed papers in reputed journals. He successfully finished one minor research project sponsored by UGC.
Partha Pratim Sengupta, Ph.D., is Professor of Economics, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, National Institute of Technology Durgapur, India. He has teaching experience of 34 years, out of which 20 years of teaching at postgraduate level and research.
Dipayan Singha, M.Com, is presently working as College Contractual Whole Time Lecturer at Lalbaba College, since 2017. He is also serving as a Visiting Faculty, Department of Commerce, Ramsaday College, Amta, WB, since 2016.
Madhabendra Sinha, M.Sc. and M.Phil., is currently a Senior Research Fellow in Economics at Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, National Institute of Technology Durgapur, India. His research interests include international economics, time series econometrics, open economy macroeconomics, development economics and applied econometrics, etc.
Russell Olukayode Somoye, Ph.D., is a Professor of Finance at Olabisi Onabanjo University, Nigeria. He obtained his Ph.D. degree from the University of the West of Scotland. He consults for Central Bank of Nigeria and other reputable institutions around the world
Joseph Niyan Taiwo, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Finance at Covenant University, Nigeria. His area of expertise is development finance, microfinance, and poverty. He has published extensively in reputable journals.
Ashu Tiwari has completed her MBA in 2007 and has four years working experience in the field of insurance underwriting and claims. She is currently enrolled in the Ph.D. program of Indian Institute of Management Rohtak, India and pursuing her Ph.D. in the area of insurance demand.
Ezebuilo Romanus Ukwueze, Ph.D., is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka in Enugu State, Nigeria. He has a number of publications in international journals and edited books.
Serhat Yüksel, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor of Finance at Istanbul Medipol University, Istanbul, Turkey. He has more than 80 scientific articles and some of them are indexed in SSCI. He is also Editor of many different books published by Springer and IGI Global.
N. R. Bhanumurthy*
In the era of globalization, the world economy has faced numerous challenges in terms of risks to the global growth, stability as well as to the employment. This is more so in the context of emerging market economies such as India, where the economies are opened up for the factors of production, especially the foreign capital as they were scarce. While globalization has had positive outcomes in terms of enhancing the growth potential in the capital scarce nations, it has also resulted in increasing risks being transmitted through the foreign capital. Globalization has also posed challenges to fiscal, monetary, and the external sector policies. In some countries it has resulted in high inflation while in many it has enhanced the potential growth while also leading to structural change. However, as it happened, it has also accompanied by various global shocks. Since early 1990s, the emerging market economies have witnessed shocks periodically in terms of Asian crisis, Dotcom bust, sub-prime crisis, European crisis, commodity shocks, and the recent crisis in the foreign exchange markets following US Quantitative Easing of monetary policy, Brexit, etc. This has also posed challenges in terms of the overall understanding of the relationship between various macroeconomic variables, real-financial linkages, fiscal–monetary nexus as well as domestic and international transmission mechanism of monetary policies.
While some of the above challenges are theoretical in nature, most of them are empirical and it needs to be evaluated on a continuous basis by using contemporary information as well as quantitative models. Indeed, the global shocks and its prediction also suggest that most of the empirical relationships are time varying in nature and depends on the country under question. In some countries, as the interest rates came into negative territory, it has posed challenge to theoretical understanding of the open-economy macroeconomic relationships. Toward this direction, the present book edited by Dr Ramesh Chandra Das is very timely and covers most of the issues that are relevant for the stability of emerging market economies such as India. The book especially focuses on the challenges that the economies face in formulating monetary policies in the context of global shocks.
The issues that the book covers are wide-ranging and are a combination of both theoretical as well as empirical papers. Some of the conclusion of the papers are very interesting and also in some cases challenging, especially when the conclusions are counter-intuitive. One such conclusion is about the absence of long-run relationship between the United States and China growth while the presence of long-run relationship of both the countries with Indian growth. But most importantly, the book helps the policymakers at least to relook at the empirical issues the way that were traditional understood. It is also worth to emphasis that some of the chapters adopt advanced quantitative methods to re-look at some of the empirical relationships. There are many chapters that look at the issue of monetary policy transmission and conclude that they largely depend on the country specific as some countries found to have credit channel while some find the presence of interest rate channel.
In the context of India, some of the chapters focus on standard monetarists propositions while couple of chapters focus on the issue of demonetization. However, the conclusions about demonetization and its impact needs to be carefully understood especially due to limited information available since the demonetization. At least when it comes to its impact on the behavior of monetary variables, one needs some more statistical information. But the scrutiny of demonetization would be much more rigorous in the coming years.
To sum it up, as Dr Das pointed out in the Introduction, the challenges to monetary policy in the twenty-first century is enormous, especially in the context of maintaining macroeconomic stability in the emerging market economies. While some of the chapters in this volume help in understanding those challenges and help in overcoming them, needless to say that there is a need for evidence-based policy making and that needs more studies that are time and country specific. In that direction, this volume is a very good addition to the literature.
Currently working as Professor at National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi, India. His areas of specialization are macro-monetary economics, fiscal policy, and development economics.
The new millennium has started with its bitter experiences on the East Asian Crisis and Dot Com bubble during the final lap of the last century. The new century has witnessed first the monetary mismanagements of the EURO Zone countries especially of the GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) who struggled for sovereign debt problems, the emergence of global financial crisis of the 2007–2009 preceded by housing market collapse, then the Quantitative Easing Policies taken by the US Central Bank, and the recessionary phase in the aftermath. The mismanagement in the monetary policy and its aftermath crisis effects have compelled the world leaders and the governments of the countries in the world to apply for interest rates cuts to attract new demanders in the credit market to boost up aggregate demand as well as national income. In addition to that, the newly developed group, BRICS, has started their own banking system to fight against any sort of financial crisis as well as to promote intercountry development of the group. There is again the democratic decision of the British to leave the European Community that made several policy decisions by the UK as well as the other countries in the European Zone and the countries of the rest of the world. Besides, there are the policies like demonetization by the world’s second largest country in terms of population and third largest in terms of GDP, who is none other than India. The stock markets have traveled trembling after all the above monetary mismanagements.
The prime managers of monetary systems of all the country are their central banks who make adjustments of rate of interest and inflation levels by active monetary policies. But, the roles of these central banks are not independent to each other as some decisions taken by the international financial bodies like IMF and the World Bank compel them to tune their own policy decisions. The Basel norms in banking supervision make the countries’ central banks to control their own banking systems at par the international standards, in terms of credit delivery and minimizing nonperforming assets. An optimum monetary policy is always accepted as income increasing and price stabilizing. Any deviation from it makes the related macroeconomic indicators to move not in their expected trajectories. Hence, any mismanagement may be crucial not only to the concerned country, but the other countries as well.
Under the milieu, the present book endeavors to establish empirically the effect of monetary policies upon economic indicators during the twenty-first century at the global, regional, group, or country levels. Motivated by the positive moves by the stake holder publisher, Emerald Publishing Limited, upon my submitted proposal, I proceeded further for its fruition. After a series of scrutiny and suggestions by the review teams of the publisher, the title is finalized as The Impacts of Monetary Policy in the 21st Century’s World-special reference to emerging economies.
Keeping in mind its broad coverage, the book has been structured in two sections to present 27 finalized chapters. Section I envelops the monetary policy effects in the global perspectives with nine chapters and Section II covers various aspects of monetary policies at different emerging economies with special emphasis on the Indian economy with 18 chapters. The basic features of the covered chapters are outlined below.
Section I: Monetary Policy Effects at the Global Perspectives
Chapter 1 aims to determine the effects of monetary policies on capital markets of the emerging E7 economies for 1997–2016 and the results show that there is a long-run relationship between interest rate and bond market, but this is not a causality relationship. On the other side, cointegration and causality relationship does not exist between stock market and interest rates.
Chapter 2 develops a baseline theoretical framework to examine the inflation–output dynamics under the regime of monetary policy anchored to inflation rate. It reveals that the persistence of inflation is significantly explained by the credibility of monetary authority in the regime of inflation targeting monetary policy. Further, the nature of inflation–output dynamics in the aftermath of any adverse supply shock in a closed economy with inflation targeting monetary policy depends crucially on the degree of central bank’s credibility and the extent of monetary transmission.
Chapter 3 analyzes the effects of the Official Development Assistance on GDP per capita of 92 developing countries for the period 2009–2013. The result of this study indicates that foreign aid through monetary policy managements has a negative influence on GDP per capita and the coefficient is always statistically significant.
Chapter 4 aims to estimate the link between asset prices and monetary policy, and also to estimate the responses of monetary policy and the asset price shocks for Nigeria. The results show that changes in asset prices lead to a marginal increase in monetary policy rate in the short run and the impact stabilizes a bit in the medium term and becomes negative in the long run.
Chapter 5 discusses the impact of negative rate on economic growth and bank customers besides discussing the future trends of negative interest rates under a conceptual framework and opined that low interest rates in the developed countries can also appear in the countries like India in the near future.
Chapter 6 reexamined the traditional research topic in finance – the efficient market hypothesis within the context of nonlinearity unit root test on the Nigerian economy. The results indicate rejections of the null hypothesis for all the series, an indication that stock market indices in Nigeria are nonlinear and asymmetric in nature.
Chapter 7 attempts to determine the optimal monetary policy instrument for Nigeria with data from 1970 to 2016 and suggest that, although money supply is superior in meeting Nigeria’s monetary policy goals, a combination of both money supply and interest rate instruments is optimal rather than employing each instrument independently.
Chapter 8 explores the strategic importance of the International Monetary System, tracking its evolution, and how it is managed before leading to an examination of the emergence of the global financial capitalism. It concludes the global crisis has underlined the vulnerability of the millions of workers who lost their job and, with it, access to any source of income or health coverage.
Finally, Chapter 9, in this section, attempts to explore the dynamic impact of globalization on inflation empirically in developing countries in Asian region. Empirical findings imply that globalization significantly influences inflation in selected Asian developing economies.
Section II: Aspects of Monetary Policy in Emerging Economies with Special Focus on Indian Economy
Chapter 10 examines the impact of economic and political decisions such as demonetization, change of Clinical Establishment (CE) Act, and media news on medical tourism and also examine how demonetization and CE Act of West Bengal affect the emerging market of medical tourism in West Bengal, India upon a primary survey basis and showed that the Act played important role for discrimination where accreditation did not have significant impact for discriminating between the two groups.
Chapter 11 investigates whether three major economic indicators of the modern world economy, namely financial integration, growth rate, and trade openness, have long-run associations for the three leading economies, USA, China, and India. The results that the indicators are not cointegrated or have long-run equilibrium relations for USA and China, but they are for India. This indicates that financial integration, trade openness, and growth of income for India are interrelated.
Chapter 12 integrates the issues of fragmented credit market, vertical interaction between formal and informal financial sectors, rationing of formal credit, and monetary policy in a theoretical framework. Theoretical proposition suggests that an expansion of formal credit results in shrinking the size of contested segment of the informal credit market and thereby reduction of interest rate in the market.
Chapter 13 identifies the causes or genesis of global crisis; to examine the impact of the crisis on world economy with special emphasis on India; to make an analysis of the impact on the share price movement of select S&P BSE Sensex companies in India, and concluded that India is not an exception and the equity market performance of the select BSE companies were comparatively better in the pre-period (2005–2007) than in the crisis period.
Chapter 14 judges the efficiency of Indian commercial banks for the study period 2006–2017 using financial intermediation and service-oriented production approach, and concludes that Indian Banking industry suffered in terms of both financial intermediation as well as production during banking crisis in managerial pure efficiency but performed quite well with respect to other aspects of efficiencies.
Chapter 15 highlights historical evolution of monetary policy across the countries as well as trends in India’s monetary policy over time and challenges thereof, provides some tentative solutions, and pointed out the challenge for monetary policy have been changing over time, even though some basic issues have remained of perennial concern.
Chapter 16 tries to add to the debate by focusing on an empirical analysis of sudden demonetization announced by the India Government and observed that sudden and almost complete demonetization is an unanticipated monetary shock in a very specific sense. Moreover, though the much-hyped objectives of recovering black money, curbing terrorist activities, confiscating fake currencies, and motivating a cashless economy was stated ceremoniously, no clarity was there regarding the growth objective or the possible job-loss scenario of the economy.
Chapter 17 aims to show whether there is a possible trade-off between the rate of inflation, growth, and money supply by considering annual data ranging from 1981 to 2016 for the Indian economy and the results show that India uses no predetermined strategy to change money supply, at the most the policymakers keep in mind that excessive inflation is unacceptable and money supply is moderated when expected inflation is seen to be going out of the specified bounds.
Chapter 18 examines the contribution of Indian banks’ financial aspects to their operating efficiency and results show that variables positively and significantly affecting operating efficiency are past operating efficiency, provision by total advances, provision by investment, advances by deposit plus borrowing, etc.
Chapter 19 investigates the long-run and short-run linkages between “broad money supply and GDP,” “GDP and inflation rate,” and “money supply and inflation rate” for Indian economy and reveals that there are no long-run cointegrating relations among them. Further, causality results show that the change of growth rate of GDP has influence upon the change of growth rate of inflation in a three years period lag.
Chapter 20 reviews the concept of global liquidity and studies the effects of QE, and surplus liquidity generated there from, on emerging economy stock markets like India’s to gauge the possibilities of financial market vulnerabilities and results indicate that the Indian stock market movements may not be totally independent of changes in global liquidity.
Chapter 21 aims to examine the major monetary policy changes that have taken place since independence and attempts to compare the post-crisis era to the pre-crisis one. It reveals that changes in cash reserve ratio and nonperforming asset have a positive impact on liability–asset ratio, whereas credit-deposit ratio of scheduled commercial banks has a negative influence.
Chapter 22 aims to study the significant difference between marginal cost based lending rate (MCLR) charged by different banks by using mean comparison paired t-test and observes that the variation of HDFC bank’s MCLR has a significantly positive impact on SBI’s MCLR. Axis bank’s MCLR significantly and positively impacted by UBI. In case of PNB, Canara, UBI, and OBC have positive impact whereas Axis has a significantly negative impact.
Chapter 23 tries to explore the basic determinants of financial inclusion in rural India; estimate the impact of policy variables of the RBI on the flow of credit to the priority sectors in rural areas and to estimate the structural shift, if any, in this flow and identify interregional variations in the flow of credit to the priority sector particularly the self-help groups, and, hence, to identify regional variations in the process of financial inclusion. It revealed that although there has been spread of banking networks through microfinancial activities but there are growing inequalities among the groups.
Chapter 24 investigates the impact of monetary policy on the corporate financial structure, using a sample of 422 manufacturing firms in India for the period 2011–2017and the findings suggest that a contractionary monetary policy cuts down overall corporate debt, and that there is an increase in long-term borrowings of listed firms after monetary tightening.
Chapter 25 draws attention to the term “globalization of monetary policy” and some of the forces at work that indicate the pace of such globalization after giving in detail at the beginning of some common features that exist across globe in the conduct of monetary policies and found a long-run cointegration among the variables, besides that the inflation adjusts to its equilibrium rapidly at a rate of 35% in short run.
Chapter 26 analyzes the impact of monetary policy on Indian economy in the recent past to understand the effectiveness of the policy in India context in the twenty-first century world where different kinds of external financial shocks and observed that different monetary policy instruments have been adjusted by the central bank of the country to counter the shock.
Finally Chapter 27 argues that a combination of regulatory landscape in credit financing domain and insurance domain plays a crucial role in causing credit crisis in India. For making the current discussion more comprehensive, the study has also incorporated contextual discussions on monetary and fiscal aspects of policy where it finds necessary. The study finds that during crisis, credit insurance has created a demo effect and increased the risk in the free market system.
The extracts of the chapters covered by the book reveal that the global financial crisis has been the toughest crisis the world economy has witnessed in the new millennium. Not only the economies of the developed zones are affected, the economies of the emerging countries have also hit hard. The central banks of the countries have been busy in framing and adjusting different monetary policy tools to protect their economies. India is not an exception to this scenario. Besides, the demonetization policy in India has invited new unprecedented economic impacts that hindered its growth of income and employment. The policy suggestions provided by the authors in the book will inevitably help the monetary authorities of the countries to safe guard their economies from any such crises that may happen in the future.
Ramesh Chandra Das
After giving over a long time on the stages from proposal writing to final submission of the proposed book titled, The Impacts of Monetary Policy in the 21st Century’s World-special reference to emerging economies, it is now an unimaginable pleasure to proclaim from my part as editor that the proposed book on the said title has been in due course unearthed. The ultimate achievement in mounting to such a huge volume could not be articulated if the contributions of plethora of academicians all around the world were not united. Hence, it would be blameworthy if I do not recognize the contributions of the concerned academicians and the other members of the society directly or indirectly attached to the project.
At first, I must acknowledge the Emerald Publishing Ltd. Team for approving the proposal and continuously guiding me at all stages of developments of the book. Secondly, I should be grateful to my research guides Professor Soumyen Sikdar of Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, India and formerly Professor Sarmila Banerjee of Calcutta University, India for persistently encouraging me to undergo such types of projects. Thirdly, I must express gratitude to Dr Amaresh Das and Dr Frank Martin of College of Business, Southern University at New Orleans, USA, Dr Lara Penco of University of Genoa, Italy, and Professor and former Vice Chancellor Asis Kumar Banerjee, Calcutta University for their unspoiled efforts in guiding me throughout the entire project. Fourthly, I should pay gratitude to all the contributing authors for their valuable chapter contributions and showing their patience for such a long duration project. I must acknowledge the values they added to the existing literature through this volume.
Last but not the least I must be grateful to my parents, wife, daughter, brothers, and other members of the family for their continuous influence, supports, and sacrifice in carrying out the lengthy project. Of course, no one other than me, as the editor, discloses to remain entirely responsible for any errors still stay behind the book.
Ramesh Chandra Das
- Section I: Monetary Policy Effects at the Global Perspectives
- Chapter 1: Determining the Effects of Monetary Policies on Capital Markets of the Emerging Economies: An Evidence from E7 Countries
- Chapter 2: A Theoretical Appraisal of the Inflation–Output Dynamics Under Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy
- Chapter 3: Measuring the Effectiveness of Official Development Assistance on the Economic Growth of Developing Countries: A 2009–2013 Analysis
- Chapter 4: The Link between Monetary Policy and Assets Prices in Nigeria
- Chapter 5: Negative and Low Deposit Rates and Penalty on Savers
- Chapter 6: Re-examining Stock Market Efficiency in Nigeria Using Nonlinear Unit Root Tests
- Chapter 7: Optimal Monetary Policy Instruments for Nigeria
- Chapter 8: Monetary Policies in the 21st Century’s World: Causes, Effects, and Recommendations
- Chapter 9: Globalization and Inflation in Developing Asia
- Section II: Aspects of Monetary Policy in Emerging Economies with Special Focus on Indian Economy
- Chapter 10: Effects of Demonetization, Clinical Establishment Act, and Media News on Medical Tourism: An Exploratory Study in West Bengal
- Chapter 11: Interrelationships among Financial Development, Growth Rate, and Trade Openness: Study for USA, China, and India
- Chapter 12: Interaction between the Formal and Informal Financial Sectors and its Implications on Monetary Policy: Experiences from Indian Economy
- Chapter 13: Global Financial Crisis: A Study of its Impact on Select S&P BSE Sensex Companies in India During 2005–2013
- Chapter 14: The Efficiency of Indian Commercial Banking Industry: A Comparison of Service Oriented Production Vis-á-Vis Financial Intermediation Approach
- Chapter 15: An Investigation into India’s Move Toward Emerging Contours of New Monetary Policy Framework
- Chapter 16: India’s Demonetization, 2016: Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Consequences
- Chapter 17: How to Fulfill the Objectives of Control of Money Supply, Growth, and Inflation Targeting?: A Peep into the Emerging Contour of India’s Monetary Policy
- Chapter 18: Determinants of Operating Efficiency of Commercial Banks in India: Insights from Panel Regression Model
- Chapter 19: Role of Monetary Policy on Generating Output and Price Stability in India: An Investigation
- Chapter 20: Global Liquidity – A Review of Concepts, Measurement, and Effect on Asset Prices: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact on the Indian Stock Market
- Chapter 21: Role of the Monetary Policy in India During the Pre- and Post-global Crisis Era
- Chapter 22: Marginal Cost Based Lending Rate: A Study on the New Regime of Lending Rate Pattern of the Banking Operations in India
- Chapter 23: Monetary Policy of RBI and Its Impact on the Financial Inclusion in Rural India
- Chapter 24: Monetary Policy and Corporate Performance in India: “Inside the Black Box Thinking”
- Chapter 25: Monetary Policy in a Global Economy and the Indian Overall Experience
- Chapter 26: Impact of Monetary Policy on Indian Economic Growth and Price Stability in the 21st Century: An Exploratory Study
- Chapter 27: Credit Insurance under Different Policy Regimes and Associated Risk of Crisis