accounting variables
as firm value determinants
, 138–140, 139t
return and
, 142, 144, See also predictive models
accounts
, 102
as dataset
, 4
focus of
, 102
fundamental analysis based on
, 103–104
quality of
, 128–129
acquisition/mergers
, 86–87
affect, extrinsic value and
, 44–45
American Association of Individual Investors
, 160, 163
‘anticipation process’ to investment
, 97
Applied Investment Theory (Coleman)
, 17
APT.
, See arbitrage pricing theory (APT)
arbitrage pricing theory (APT)
, 115–116, 203
asset allocation
, 5, 15, 24, 73
individual investors and
, 9
institutional investors and
, 8–9, 9n4, 207
MPT and
, 199
asset markets
, 4, See also equity markets
macroeconomics and
, 153
asset prices
, 11, 42, 153, See also prices/pricing
globalisation of markets and
, 143
assets under management (AUM)
, 9n4, 72–73, 131, 198
AUM.
, See assets under management (AUM)
Australia
model audit engagement letter
, 220
Securities and Investment Commission of
, 157, 220
Securities Exchange
, 158
valuation measures/ratios
, 114, 115t
avoidance, as risk management strategy
, 125
Azofra-Palenzuela, V.
, 50
capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
, 114–115, 203
FM valuations and
, 74
cash flow.
, See also discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis
calculation
, 107
cyclical
, 133
free
, 107
future
, 102
pro forma statement
, 108t
transitory
, 108
cause-and-effect relationships
, 11
Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
, See Enron Corporation
Chicago Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP)
, 50, 101
classical economics
, 2
dictums of
, 6
closed end mutual fund discount
, 39
co-insurance
, 90, 132, 133–134
compensation
, 42, 91, 130
competition regulation
, 87
component model of prices
, 5, 15–17
conceptualistion
, 27–29
extrinsic value.
, See extrinsic value
intrinsic value.
, See intrinsic value
optionality.
, See real options
overview
, 23–24
top down worldview
, 206
transactional value.
, See transactional value
conventional vs. equity markets
, 25–27
corporate governance
, 130–131
cycles
, 169–171
explanations for
, 169
indication of
, 166f, 169–170
Damodaran, A.
, 30, 57n1, 107, 158
DCF.
, See discounted cash flow analysis (DCF)
Democratic Party (US)
, 132
Dictionary of Political Economy (Higgs)
, 84
diminishing marginal utility
, 7
discounted cash flow analysis (DCF)
, 6, 28, 61, 101, 105, See also cash flow
comparative findings
, 116–118
conventional approach to
, 109
FM valuations and
, 74
limited use of
, 117
disequilibrium in equity price
, 166
DJIA.
, See Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
Dodd, D.
, 30, 40–41, 97, 123
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
, 67–68, 98
downward sloping demand curve
, 7
dynamic, conditional techniques for price evaluation
, 140–146, See also predictive models
ECM.
, See error correction model (ECM)
economic growth, stock returns and
, 153–154
Edgeworth price cycles
, 14, 166–169, 212
endogenous risks
, 90–92, 126
Enron Corporation
, 90, 128–129, 129t
Chapter 11 bankruptcy
, 128–129
enterprise risk management (ERM) programmes
, 88
equilibrium price
, 6, 27, 166, 169, 199, 206
equities.
, See also investments; price/pricing; risk(s); risk management
as contracts
, 1
debt securities and
, 155
as extensive variables
, 3, 4, 25
high-risk, elimination of
, 125–136
intrinsic/fundamental value
, 5
nature and substance
, 3
relational contracts
, 6, 25, 54
standard goods vs.
, 25–27
equity markets.
, See also investments; price/pricing; risk management
conventional markets vs.
, 25–27
crashes
, 2
incremental investment and
, 14
instability
, 7
institutional investors in.
, See institutional investors
predictable patterns in
, 13–15
seasonality and
, 14–15
socialisation of
, 41–43, 205, 206
structure of
, 160–161
technical analysis and.
, See technical analysis/analysts (TA)
timing, return from
, 172–173, 174f
equity return.
, See return(s)
error correction model (ECM)
, 141–142, 143–146
An Essay upon Public Credit (Defoe)
, 1
evaluation techniques, for price
, 140–146, See also predictive models
executive compensation.
, See compensation
extensive variables
, 3, 4, See also equities
intensive variables vs.
, 25–26
extrinsic value
, 5, 15, 29, 40–47, 212, 213
investment heuristics and
, 43–44
market data and
, 17
psychological contributor to
, 44–46
quantification
, 50
socialisation and
, 41–43
ExxonMobil Corporation
, 92
factor models
, 114–116, See also market-based approach, to pricing
APT
, 115–116
CAPM
, 114–115
Fair Disclosure (SEC’s regulation)
, 96
Fama, E. F.
, 77, 83, 154, 161–162
feedbacks
, 3, 4, 17, 82, 151
debt and
, 155
deterministic chaotic system
, 166
economic systems and
, 7
equities and
, 44, 155, 159
socialised markets
, 11
transaction
, 41
Veblen properties
, 47
Fidelity Investments
, 118
financial crisis (2007-2008)
, 88–89, 157
financial institutions
, 4, See also investors
trends/trending and
, 164
Financial Statement and Security Valuation (Penman)
, 57n1
financial statements
, 102
forecasting return.
, See predictive models
four component model of equity price.
, See component model of prices
fundamental analysis/valuation
, 95–120
approaches to
, 102–104
challenges/issues in
, 95–97
comparative findings
, 116–118
complexities of
, 120–122
elements in
, 103t
factors promoting
, 95
framework
, 101–104
impediments to
, 119–120
market-based techniques.
, See market-based approach, to pricing
paradox involved in
, 96
perspectives on
, 96–97
price-sensitive firm attributes
, 104–105
projecting price from firm payoffs
, 105, 107–110
steps in
, 102–103
techniques
, 95, 100–101, 100t
value investing
, 118–120
fundamental value.
, See intrinsic value
fund managers
, 18
AUM-based fees
, 73
CFA accreditation
, 73
conduct of
, 73–74
investment techniques/strategies
, 74–75
Galbraith, John K.
, 42, 197
GDP
, 175
corporate earnings and
, 150
equity prices and
, 150, 152
fall in
, 86
interest rates and
, 154
returns and
, 153–154
unexpected surge in
, 37
global financial crisis.
, See financial crisis (2007-2008)
Global Stability Report (IMF)
, 89
goods in traditional markets
, 3
Gordon, M. J.
, 110n1, 218
governance.
, See corporate governance
Graham, B.
, 30, 40–41, 57n1, 58, 59, 60, 75, 76, 97, 118, 123
growth
abnormal
, 12
assets
, 216
economic, stock returns and
, 153–154
income
, 59
investors
, 187
revenue
, 59
Hamlet (Shakespeare)
, 95, 96
Harvey, C. R.
, 11, 104, 124
Hasanhodzic, J.
, 70, 71, 157
hazard, moral.
, See moral hazard
hazard liabilities
, 5, 15, 29, 33, 35t, 37, 38, 136–137, See also real options
hedging
, 88, 130, 133, See also risk management
The Heretics of Finance (Lo and Hasanhodzic)
, 70
human decisions, factors influencing
, 7
IMF.
, See International Monetary Fund (IMF)
individualism, return and
, 157
inflation
, 154–155
interest rate and
, 154
information
, 64, 98–99, 104, 175, 206–207, 218, 219
firm as source of
, 104
fund managers (FM)
, 74–75
non-fundamental
, 40
permanent impact on prices
, 99
price-sensitive
, 13–14, 162–165, 168
publicly reported firm-specific
, 163
role in price change
, 99
utility
, 11, 102
value-sensitive
, 164
informational cascades
, 45
information asymmetry
, 26, 40, 91–92
information innovations
, 23, 206
during 1941–1987 in US
, 99
injuries.
, See workplace injuries
In Search of Excellence (Peters and Waterman)
, 119
institutional economics
, 150
institutional investors
, 18, See also investors
asset allocation and
, 8–9, 9n4
AUM.
, See assets under management (AUM)
dominant role
, 26–27, 212–213
investment style of
, 72–75
insurance, for risk management
, 102, 133–134
intensive variables
, 25–26
interest rates
, 155–156
GDP and
, 154
inflation and
, 154
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
, 89
intrinsic value
, 5, 15, 29, 30–31, 136, 205
concept
, 30
duplication/replication
, 30–31
investment.
, See also portfolios; risk management
anticipation process to
, 97
complexity of
, 165
gaps in understanding of
, 2
as intertemporal
, 3
nature and mechanics of
, 24–27
optimised
, 2
paradigm
, 5
performance evaluation.
, See performance evaluation
principles
, 3–4
ranking candidate
, 8–9
risk in.
, See risk(s)
skill
, 62–64
value
, 118–120
Investments (Bodie, Kane and Marcus)
, 158
Investments (CFA Institute)
, 97
investors
, 3
behaviour
, 3–4
behavioural biases
, 50, 51, 52t–53t
ethical and socially responsible
, 131
financial distress
, 130
growth
, 187
horizon and foresight, mismatch
, 10–12
as loss averse
, 80
market oriented
, 187
personal accounts
, 58–71
personalised investment style
, 69
small capitalisation
, 187
status quo bias
, 165
value
, 186, 187
wish list
, 218–222
It’s When You Sell That Counts (Cassidy)
, 185
The Lady’s Answer to the Knight (Butler)
, 1
La Fuente-Herrero, D.
, 50
Lambertides, N.
, 28, 31, 50, 54
LAPR.
, See also loss-adjusted performance ranking (LAPR)
law of one price, violations of
, 38–39
clientele effect
, 39
closed end mutual fund discount
, 39
concept
, 38–39
LEAP.
, See Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities (LEAP)
leverage, in portfolios
, 190
Lo, A. W.
, 70, 71, 157, 218
Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities (LEAP)
, 182–183
loss-adjusted performance ranking (LAPR)
, 192–193
The Lunacy of Modern Finance Theory and Regulation (Coleman)
, 17, 221
Lynch, P.
, 57n1, 58, 61–64, 87, 185, 191, 215
MACD.
, See moving average convergence-divergence oscillator (MACD)
macroeconomic variables
influence on equity prices
, 151–153
as predictors of returns
, 152
Marcus, A. J.
, 57n1, 116n3, 117n4, 158
market-based approach, to pricing
, 111–116
factor models
, 114–116
relative valuation (RV)
, 111–114
utility
, 116
market oriented investors
, 187
markets.
, See also equity markets
classical theory of
, 25
conventional/traditional vs. equity
, 25–27
market sentiment index
, 160
market-to-book (MTB) ratios
, 105, 111, 113–114
market turning points
, 170–171, See also trends
Market Wizards (Schwager)
, 65
Markowitz, H. M.
, 137, 192
mergers.
, See acquisition/mergers
milestones, price
, 171–172
modern portfolio theory (MPT)
, 18, 74, 84, 199–204
foundations
, 200
fund managers and
, 18
impact of
, 199–200
implications for
, 210–211
Keynesian orthodoxy and
, 200
limitations/shortcomings
, 200–203
regulators and
, 201–202
Modigliani, F.
, 28, 51, 83
moral hazard
, 86–88, 91, 133, 134
competition-induced
, 87
concept
, 86
regulation as a source of
, 87
reverse
, 86
technology and products
, 87–88
workplace injuries
, 86
moving average convergence-divergence oscillator (MACD)
, 159, 160
MPT.
, See modern portfolio theory (MPT)
mutual funds.
, See also fund managers
AUM
, 72–73
directors
, 131
factors shaping performance of
, 72
oligopoly
, 72
Myers, S. C.
, 28, 31–32, 51, 117n4
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
, 170
natura non facit saltum
, 7
neural approaches, to prediction
, 141
noisy market hypothesis
, 166
One Up on Wall Street (Lynch)
, 61
opportunity cost
, 2, 9, 10, 15, 24, 30, 31, 100, 101, 107, 155, 180, 190, 192
optionality in equity price.
, See real options
oscillators, as technical indicators
described
, 159
MACD
, 159, 160
RSI
, 159–160
out-of-the-money call option
, 32
over-the-counter markets
, 32
payoffs, projecting equity price from
, 105, 107–110
cash flow analysis
, 107–109
residual income valuation
, 109–110
Penman, Stephen H.
, 57n1, 102–103
pension plans
, 8, See also retirement savings
performance evaluation
, 190–193, 194t, See also portfolios
benchmark
, 191–193
LAPR
, 192–193
predictive capability
, 191
Sharpe Ratio
, 192, 193
performance-generated risks
, 92–93
political contributions
, 131–132
political economy
, 149–156
portfolios
, 179–194
features
, 179
leverage in
, 190
optimising structure of
, 180–182
performance evaluation
, 190–193, 194t
reducing loss exposure
, 182–186
style tilts in
, 186–190
power distance, return and
, 157
predictable patterns, in equity markets
, 13–15
predictive models
, 4
empirical application
, 143–146
error correction model (ECM)
, 141–142, 143–146
neural approaches
, 141
three-pass regression filter (TPRF)
, 142–146
President’s term (US)
, 170
price pressure hypothesis
, 167
price/pricing
, 3
basis of
, 6–8
chaotic time series
, 141
component model of.
, See component model of prices
equilibrium
, 199
evaluation techniques
, 140–146
market-based approach to
, 111–116
practitioner-oriented study
, 97
puzzles in
, 23–24, 206
social aspects
, 3
time varying components
, 11
unique features
, 6–8
price-sensitive information
, 13–14, 162–165, 168, 175
price-to-earnings ratio (PER)
, 58, 60, 62, 71, 111, 112–113, 114, 116
price-to-sales ratio
, 114
principal components regression (PCR)
, 140n2
Principles of Economics (Marshall)
, 7
prospect theory (PT)
, 80–82, 81f, 92–93
random walk
, 158, 161–163
assumptions
, 163
ratios.
, See relative valuation (RV); valuation, ratios
real options
, 5, 15, 28, 29, 31–38, 136, 205
benefit
, 32
long
, 33
nature and drivers of
, 34t–35t
portfolio effect
, 36
as shared public good
, 37
short
, 33, 36
standard deviation and
, 137
time value
, 37
valuation of
, 37–38
volatility of
, 38
relational contracts
, 6, 25, 54
relative strength index (RSI)
, 159–160
relative valuation (RV)
, 111–114, See also market-based approach, to pricing
benefits
, 111–112
MTB
, 111, 113–114
PER.
, See price-to-earnings ratio (PER)
price-to-sales ratio
, 114
representative investor
, 18
residual income valuation (RIV)
, 6, 109–110
retail industry (US)
, 134–135, 135t
retirement savings
, 8, 72, 197, 212, See also pension plans
return(s).
, See also return-risk relationship
future, higher
, 105
GDP and
, 153–154
gender role rigidity and
, 157
individualism and
, 157
inflation and
, 154–155
interest rates and
, 155–156
lagged values of variables and
, 104–105, 106t
long-term orientation and
, 157
from market timing
, 172–173, 174f
power distance and
, 157
predictive models.
, See predictive models
uncertainty avoidance and
, 157
return-risk relationship
, 83–84
concave relationship
, 84
negative relationship
, 83–84
non-linear relationship
, 84
positive relationship
, 83
risk(s)
, 5, 79–93
boards of directors and
, 129–130
conceptualistion
, 80–83
determinants
, 85–93
endogenous
, 90–92
exogenous
, 86–90
overview
, 79–80
performance-generated
, 92–93
prospect theory (PT)
, 80–82, 81f, 92–93
return and
, 83–84
sources
, 85f
"Risk and the rate of return on financial assets" (Haugen and Heins)
, 84
risk management
, 125–136
addressing harm from latent risk determinants
, 127–128
avoidance as
, 126
building slack
, 132–133
corporate governance and
, 130–131
ethical and socially responsible investment and
, 131
financial distress
, 130
hedging
, 130, 133
insurance
, 102, 133–134
minimising semi-variation/downside risk
, 126–127
perspectives
, 125–126
political contributions and
, 131–132
quality of accounts and
, 128–129
Royal Dutch Petroleum
, 39
RSI.
, See relative strength index (RSI)
SAD.
, See seasonal affective disorder (SAD)
sawtooth price pattern
, 160, 166–169
petrol retailing and
, 166n5
‘Schumpeterian shocks,’
, 99, 163
seasonal affective disorder (SAD)
, 15
seasonality, market patterns and
, 14–15
SEC.
, See Securities and Exchange Commission (US)
Securities Act of 1933 (US)
, 101
Securities and Exchange Commission (US)
, 96, 157
Securities and Investment Commission (Australia)
, 157, 220
Securities Exchange (Australia)
, 158
securities regulation
, 157
Security Analysis (Graham and Dodd)
, 58
semi-deviation (SD)
, 126–127, 137, 144, 145, 181, 192–193
sentiment, indicators of
, 160, See also market sentiment index
Shakespeare, William
, 95, 96
Shiller, R. J.
, 41, 46, 213
size, as firm’s endogenous risk
, 91
small capitalisation investors
, 187, See also investors
socialisation of equity markets
, 41–43, 205, 206
socially responsible investment (SRI)
, 131
society, politics and
, 156–157
S&P 500 Index
, 60, 98, 119, 160
annual values (2000-2017)
, 170
futures contract analysis (1982-1999)
, 98
speculation/speculative excesses
, 42–43
SRI.
, See socially responsible investment (SRI)
standard deviation
, 13, 17, 36, 82, 98, 137, 144, 145, 180, 180n1, 184, 192, 193
standard goods vs. equities
, 25–27
Stapleton, R. C.
, 23, 82n1, 116n3
stock markets.
, See equity markets
stock returns.
, See return(s)
strategic opportunities
, 5, 15, 31–32, 33, 34t, 36, 37, 136–137, 138, 205, See also real options
Summers, L. H.
, 28, 51, 162
systematic variables.
, See macroeconomic variables
Taylor, J. B.
, 154, 159, See also Taylor Rule
technical analysis/analysts (TA)
, 13, 44, 70–71
application of
, 158–160
critics of
, 158
defined
, 158
equity markets structure and
, 160–161
indicators used in
, 158, 159–160
limitation of
, 65
profitability of
, 159
random walk hypothesis
, 161–163
trading and
, 157–172
trending markets and
, 70
use of
, 67–68
The Theory of Investment Value (Williams)
, 61
Theory of Reflexivity
, 41
three-pass regression filter (TPRF)
, 142–146
timing, markets, return from
, 172–173, 174f
TPRF.
, See three-pass regression filter (TPRF)
trading
insider
, 88
technical analysis (TA) and
, 157–172
turtle experiment
, 69–70
transactional value
, 5, 15, 29, 38–40, 136
price premia
, 39
violations of the law of one price
, 38–39
transactions-based data
, 4
trends/trending
, 163–166
complexity of investment
, 165
data series and
, 164
financial institutions and
, 165
long periods
, 164
psychological influences and
, 165–166
shorter periods
, 164
Trigeorgis, L.
, 28, 31, 50, 54
turtle experiment (trading)
, 69–70
uncertainty
, 4, 29, 82, 83
avoidance, return and
, 157
semi-deviation as measure of
, 137
utility of information and
, 102
unemployment, inflation and
, 154–155
United Kingdom (UK)
, 42
valuation measures/ratios
, 114, 115t
United States (US)
banking legislation
, 87
financial institutions
, 8
information innovations
, 99
nuclear power plants
, 84
President’s term
, 170
public corporations in
, 203–204
retail industry
, 134–135, 135t
Securities Act of 1933
, 101
valuation measures/ratios
, 114, 115t
United Technologies Corporation (UTX)
, 144
upward sloping demand curve
, 7
upward sloping supply curve
, 7
US Democratic National Committee
, 132
US Department of Labor
, 215
utility of equity price
, 116
UTX.
, See United Technologies Corporation (UTX)
valuation
fundamental.
, See fundamental analysis/valuation
ratios
, 6, 111–114, See also relative valuation (RV)
valuation approach/model, development of
, 136–140
accounting variables
, 138–140
ranking strategy
, 137–138
value.
, See also specific value
as elusive concept
, 95
investment
, 118–120
investors
, 186
Veblen goods
, 47, 47n3, 166, 205–206
fundamental value
, 206
violations of the law of one price.
, See law of one price, violations of
VIX.
, See Volatility Index (VIX)
Volatility Index (VIX)
, 183