Socio-economic Systems in the Phase of Crisis (Long Recession)

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the chapter is to study regional (in the global scale) peculiarities of the 2008 global economic crisis and to determine socio-economic systems that are in the phase of crisis (long recession).

Methodology

The research objects are regional associations of countries according to the classification of the participants of the global economic system of the International Monetary Fund. The research is conducted by aggregation (the method of finding direct average) of the annual growth rate of GDP in constant prices by the selected categories of regional socio-economic systems. Timeframe of the research covers 2006–2018 and the forecast period of 2019–2022. The methodological tools of the research include the methods of horizontal and trend analysis.

Conclusions

It is determined that most developing countries – Commonwealth of Independent States, emerging and developing Asia and Latin America, and the Caribbean – are in a long recession and will overcome the consequences of the crisis only in the mid-term. Developing countries from the categories the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and sub-Saharan Africa faced a deep and long second wave of the crisis and will have a long recession until 2022. They will overcome it only in the long-term. The only category of developing countries – emerging and developing Europe – despite the general downward trend of GDP in constant prices – shows sustainable development and has already overcome the crisis.

Originality/value

The influence of the global economic crisis on the global economic system through the prism of the regional aspect is specified. It is shown that at present (2018) most regions of the global economic system are covered with crisis and will have long recession until 2022. Developing countries have faced the highest damage from the 2008 crisis, and most of them have the second or even the third wave of crisis.

Citation

Kurilova, A.A., Kurilov, K.Y., Dugina, T.A. and Likholetov, E.A. (2019), "Socio-economic Systems in the Phase of Crisis (Long Recession)", Popkova, E.G. (Ed.) “Conflict-Free” Socio-Economic Systems, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 201-208. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78769-993-920191023