The purpose of the chapter is to determine common regularities and peculiarities of the influence of the 2008 crisis on development of socio-economic systems in view of developed and developing countries.
The methodology of this research includes the developed author’s conceptual model of conflict of socio-economic system as an analog of the model of economic cycle. As crisis is a manifestation/example of economic conflict, this model could be used for studying it. Also, the method of comparative analysis is used for comparing the influence of the 2008 crisis on development of socio-economic systems from various categories. The objects of the research are selections of countries according to classification of the International Monetary Fund – leading developed countries (advanced economies) and emerging market and developing economies. The studied indicator is annual growth rate of GDP in constant prices.
Modeling and analysis of the influence of the 2008 crisis on development of socio-economic systems of developed and developing countries are performed, with crisis considered as a wave of economic cycle. Apart from common regularities of the 2008 crisis in socio-economic systems – vivid and short negative reaction and double wave of crisis – we determined peculiarities of influence of this crisis on economies of developed and developing countries. These peculiarities are connected to the fact that the 2008 crisis was deeper in developed countries than in developing countries, but the crisis was developing according to the optimistic scenario (long waves) and was overcome in 2012. In developed countries, the crisis was developing according to the pessimistic scenario (short waves), and negative reaction renewed in 2012, with another one expected in 2021.
It is substantiated that insufficiently intensive and successful management of crisis in developing countries will probably become a cause of increase of differentiation of countries in the global economic system, which is expressed in growth of underrun of developing countries from developed countries.
The monograph has been prepared as part of the materials within the grant of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research No. 18-010-00103 А.
Kozenko, Z.N., Kozenko, Y.A., Kozenko, K.Y. and Zvereva, G.N. (2019), "Common Regularities and Peculiarities of the Influence of the 2008 Crisis on Development of Socio-economic Systems", Popkova, E.G. (Ed.) “Conflict-Free” Socio-Economic Systems, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 165-171. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78769-993-920191019
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