Index

Chi Lo (Senior Economist, Hong Kong)

Demystifying China’s Mega Trends

ISBN: 978-1-78714-410-1, eISBN: 978-1-78714-409-5

Publication date: 21 April 2017

This content is currently only available as a PDF

Citation

Lo, C. (2017), "Index", Demystifying China’s Mega Trends, Emerald Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 251-260. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78714-409-520171013

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © Chi Lo, 2017


INDEX

Afghanistan
, 188

Alibaba
, 35, 148

AMC Entertainment
, 168

American Enterprise Institute
, 167

Anbang
, 163, 167

Angola
, 170

Animal spirits
, 43, 74, 142

loss of
, 75–80

regaining
, 81–84

Argentina
, 42, 223

Armenia
, 188

ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)
, 193, 196, 216

A-shares
, 141

Asian Development Bank (ADB)
, 22, 196

Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB)
, 21, 22, 174, 178–179, 184, 198–201, 203, 223, 233, 241

Asia versus Anglo-Saxon net saving positions
, 113

Ausgrid
, 181

Australia
, 114, 159, 168, 181, 214, 215

Baidu
, 35

Balance of payments (BoP)
, 109–110, 158, 162

Bangladesh
, 191

Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor
, 190, 194

Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
, 106, 107, 109, 111, 117, 118, 161, 217

Banking crisis
, 119–122

Bank lending, to private sector
, 115

Bank loan and shadow banking flows
, 130

Bank of Communications
, 217

Basic balance
, 157

Bass, K.
, 105, 106

Belarus
, 188

Belgium
, 69

Belt and Road (BAR)
, 22–24, 156, 179, 180, 183–184, 223, 232, 233, 236, 237

capital linkage and
, 195–196

China and
, 184–185

east–west route politics
, 187–189

exaggerated fears
, 199–201

limits
, 196–199

Mekong sub-region and
, 192–195

network
, 186

North–South land route and
, 189–191

North–South sea route and
, 191–192

strategic importance of
, 185–187

Bond swap
, 124–125

Bo Xilai
, 15

Brazil
, 21, 159, 170, 180

Brexit
, 235, 239, 240, 245

Brunei
, 193, 216

Budget Law (2014)
, 133

Buy-on-dip strategy
, 229

Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI)
, 45

Cambodia
, 159, 193, 195, 196, 216

Canada
, 13, 159, 168, 174

Capacity utilisation rates
, 87

Capital account
, 3, 31, 38, 114, 118, 119, 121, 123, 205, 206, 212, 214, 219–221, 229, 233, 234, 239

Capital account liberalisation
, 21, 135–137, 225

with Chinese characteristics
, 139, 151–153

inflow channels
, 139

outflow channels
, 139–140

two-way flow channels
, 140–142

debunking of myths and
, 148–151

FTZs and incentive compatibility and
, 142–144

potential capital flight and
, 144–146

reason for
, 137–138

stock connect schemes and
, 146–148

Capital accumulation
, 84, 85

Capital flight
, 31, 99, 122, 136, 156

versus capital outflows
, 160–163

potential
, 144–146

Capital flows
, 135, 137, 144, 145, 150, 153, 156, 175, 209, 212, 220, 236, 241, 245

See also Capital inflows; capital outflows

Capital inflows
, 5, 110, 137, 138, 157, 161, 209, 229

Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (Schumpeter)
, 98

Capital misallocation
, 37, 74, 89, 106, 121

Capital outflows
, 4, 110, 136, 138, 144–145, 155–157, 205

versus capital flight
, 160–163

and Chinese ODI
, 172–174

changing face
, 167–169

first signs of
, 157–159

future of
, 175–179

overseas expansion drivers and
, 163–167

See also Capital flows

Central Asia, China’s trade with
, 189

Chad
, 173

Chanos, J.
, 105

ChemChina
, 163

China Development Bank
, 162, 223, 228

China Development Forum (2016)
, 40

China Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Group
, 128

China EXIM Bank
, 223

China Internet Watch
, 18

Chinalco
, 168

China Mobile
, 148

China National Building Materials Group
, 128

China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO)
, 128

China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
, 173

China National Pharmaceutical Group Corporation (Sinopharm)
, 128

China–Pakistan economic corridor
, 192

Chinese Dream
, 20, 22, 25, 38, 199, 205, 231, 235–236, 238

Chinese imports over-invoicing estimates
, 146

Chinn-Ito index
, 149

Chongqing
, 197

CNOOC
, 168

Coal and steel industries profitability
, 94

Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS)
, 181

Consumers, by income groups
, 16

Consumption
, 1, 3, 9, 12, 16–18, 20, 23, 27, 31, 32, 34, 39–41, 43, 73, 102, 138, 158, 175, 178, 184, 186, 201–203

domestic
, 5

private
, 2, 202

See also Demographics

Corporate debt and systemic risk
, 125–128

Corporate liability to asset ratio
, 125

Creative destruction
, 98

Currency war
, 234

Dalian Wanda
, 168

Debt burden
, 32, 34, 36, 108, 109, 118, 119, 123, 124, 132

Debt components
, 126

Debt-deflation spiral
, 36

Debt-servicing and efficiency problems
, 116–117

Debt swap programme
, 119, 123, 124, 132–133

Debt-to-equity ratios, of industrial firms
, 127

Debt-to-GDP, for non-financial sector
, 107

Decentralisation
, 15, 91–92

Deficit country
, 5

Deleveraging process
, 105–107

banking crisis and
, 119–122

and China’s debt in perspective
, 107–111

corporate debt and systemic risk and
, 125–128

debt bomb and
, 111–114

debt problem solution and
, 117–119

debt-servicing and efficiency problems and
, 116–117

financial structure and
, 114–116

privatisation and
, 129–130

risk premium repricing and
, 122–125

SOE reform with mixed ownership and
, 128

Democratic Republic of Congo
, 170

Demographics
, 47–48

ageing population and
, 58–59

consumption to rise with ageing and
, 51–53

demographic tax and
, 49–51

early retirement and demographic tax and
, 68–70

incentive compatibility problem and
, 70–72

inflection point
, 56–57

labour income and
, 62–63

medium-term remedy
, 63–65

reverse migration and
, 65–68

rising asset demand and
, 54–55

unwilling consumer and
, 59–62

Deng Xiaoping
, 29, 43

Denmark
, 69, 170

Dependency ratio
, 7

Devaluation, of currency
, 4–6, 31

Diminishing marginal returns on investment
, 164

Dim sum bonds
, 228

Domestic tourists
, 19

Economic growth
, 2, 11, 28, 32, 36, 39, 42, 50, 52, 62, 65, 66, 68, 71, 106, 123, 125, 126, 137, 144, 174, 222

Economic, liberalisation
, 2, 15, 39, 43

Economic rebalancing
, 60

Ecuador
, 24, 170

Ethiopia
, 243

Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)
, 188

European Central Bank
, 213

European Union (EU)
, 80, 235

Excess capacity
, 73–75, 164

animal spirits

loss of
, 75–80

regaining
, 81–84

incentive problem and
, 102–103

market forces alignment and
, 92–95

reform in old days and
, 99–100

SOE and
, 87–91

structural problem and
, 80–81

suffering from
, 86–87

supply-side reform in Chinese style and
, 96–99

under capitalisation and
, 84–85

Xi’s supply-side reform reality and
, 100–101

zombies slaying and
, 95–96

Exchange rate
, 2–4, 12, 30, 108–109, 121, 122, 135, 138, 145, 151–153, 157, 160, 161, 165, 179, 180, 198, 210, 211, 222, 224, 226, 228, 229, 234, 236

Export breakdown by value
, 13

Exports to China, as percent of China’s total imports
, 216

FAW Car Co.
, 103

Fertility rate of population
, 10, 49

Financial account
, 109

Financial liberalisation
, 53, 57, 64, 125, 128, 137, 149, 202, 205, 222–225, 227

Finland
, 118

Five-Year Plans
, 12, 16, 40–42

Fixed asset investment
, 117–118

Fixed cost
, 92, 93

Foreign debt
, 31, 108–112, 118, 161, 196

Foreign direct investment (FDI)
, 1, 2, 109, 140, 155, 157, 158, 170, 199, 242, 243

Restrictiveness Index
, 180

Foreign savings
, 112–114

France
, 69, 168

Free-trade zones (FTZs)
, 136, 140–142, 145–146

and incentive compatibility
, 142–144

Fujian Province
, 197

Future growth
, 27

G3 currencies
, 240

failure of
, 233–235, 245

Gabon
, 173

Galapagos syndrome
, 34, 35

GDP components and growth contribution
, 3

The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (Keynes)
, 43, 74

Germany
, 13, 69, 84, 85, 168, 213–215

Ghana
, 173

Gini coefficient
, 143

Glencore Xstrata
, 169

Goldman Sachs
, 106

Great Financial Crisis (GFC)
, 28, 31, 34, 105, 222, 233

Greenfield investment
, 166

Greenland
, 235

Gross fixed capital formation
, 75, 76

Gross international investment
, 159

Group du Louvre
, 166

Growth expectations structural decline
, 82

Growth structure, changing
, 12–16

Harmonious society model
, 14–15

High-tech industries, growth of
, 44–45

Hong Kong
, 18–19, 56, 141, 149, 168, 193, 197, 207–209, 214–217, 219, 226, 242, 245

CNH–CNY premium driven renminbi deposit growth in
, 211

foreign currency deposits
, 210

Hong Kong Monetary Authority
, 226

Household consumption, annual per capita
, 17

Hu kou (household registration) system
, 8–10, 65–67, 71

Impossible Trinity
, 135, 138, 151, 153

Incentive compatibility
, 142

and FTZ
, 142–144

India
, 6, 21, 85, 180, 190, 191

Indonesia
, 6, 193, 196, 216

Inner Mongolia
, 197

Insurance premium
, 178

Internationalisation process
, 21

International Monetary Fund (IMF)
, 171, 233

Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER)
, 138, 149

Internet users and penetration rate
, 177

Investment
, 1, 9, 12, 16, 21–24, 29–32, 35–36, 41, 48, 51, 52, 55–59, 62, 71, 78–79, 86, 93, 96, 109–113, 124, 137, 139–141, 147–148, 183–185, 189, 192, 194–199, 201–203, 206, 207, 209–210, 217–219, 227–229, 232, 237, 240, 242, 244

domestic
, 2, 5, 132

excess
, 2, 5, 39, 81, 84, 88, 201–202

fixed asset
, 117–118

overseas direct investment (ODI)
, 155, 156, 158, 163, 164, 166–174, 180–182, 197, 198

private
, 74–77, 81, 82, 97, 101, 129, 141, 201

returns
, 15, 83

state
, 2, 23

See also Capital outflows

Iran
, 159, 188

Japan
, 13, 19, 32–38, 50, 52, 63, 84, 85, 149, 168, 174, 185, 196, 206, 217, 218

Jin Jiang group
, 129, 130, 166

Jin Liqun
, 200

Kazakhstan
, 188

Keiretsu model
, 34

Keynes, J. M.
, 43, 74

Kuka
, 181

Kunming
, 194

Kyrgyzstan
, 188

Laos
, 189, 193–195, 216

Liability-to-asset ratios
, 86

Liberalisation
, 29, 221

capital market
, 33

economic
, 2, 15, 39, 43

financial
, 53, 57, 64, 125, 128, 137, 149, 202, 205, 222–225, 227

of interest rate
, 91, 131, 132, 224

See also Capital account liberalisation

Life Cycle Theory
, 48, 52, 53, 57

Li Keqiang
, 40

Li Yuanchao
, 15

Loango National Park
, 173

Local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt
, 123–124, 130

Louvre Hotels Group
, 166

Luxembourg
, 69, 216

Macau
, 197

Macquarie Bank
, 106

Malaysia
, 17, 185, 193, 216

Mantega, Guido
, 234

Marginal propensity to consume (MPC)
, 53, 202–203

Maritime Silk Road
, 191

Market forces
, 75

alignment of
, 92–95

May, Theresa
, 181

Mekong Basin
, 190

Middle East, strategic importance of
, 186

Middle-income trap thesis
, 39, 41–42

debunking of
, 43

Midea
, 181

Migrant workers
, 65–68

MMG
, 169

Moody’s
, 106

MSCI Emerging Market Index
, 229

Mutual Fund Recognition scheme
, 141

Myanmar
, 190, 193, 194, 216

Namibia
, 243

Nanjing Cenbest
, 169

National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
, 98, 165

National income accounting
, 2

Net international investment position
, 113

New Development Banks (NDB)
, 21–22, 233, 241

New normal
, 28

Nexen
, 168

Nigeria
, 24, 149

Non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs)
, 120, 122

Non-performing loans (NPL)
, 132

Norway
, 13

Offshore RMB deposits
, 208, 222

One Belt One Road (OBOR). See Belt and Road (BAR)

One-child policy
, 8, 10, 11

Online sales growth
, 177

Operating profit
, 93, 94

Overseas direct investment (ODI)
, 155, 156, 158, 159, 163, 164, 166–174, 180–182, 197, 198

Pakistan
, 191, 192, 238

People’s Bank of China (PBoC)
, 4, 94, 122, 124, 131, 140–141, 145, 151–152, 165–166, 213, 220–223, 226, 227

Per-capita living space
, 80

Peru
, 169

Philippines
, 6, 193, 216

Ping An Insurance
, 150

Privatisation
, 97, 107, 125, 128–130

Profit-to-sales expense ratio, of enterprises
, 116

Public–private partnership (PPP) scheme
, 128, 129, 132

Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII)
, 139, 140

Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme
, 139, 141

R&D spending, comparison with
, 14

Reagan, R.
, 97

Reaganomics
, 97, 98

Renminbi (yuan)
, 1–6, 21–22, 31, 136, 137, 140–141

cash pool
, 165

clearing banks of
, 214

effective exchange rate
, 165

future of
, 231–232, 240–244

Chinese Dream role
, 235–236

credibility
, 244–245

empire building for global renminbi
, 237–238

future currency demand
, 236–237

global reserve currency
, 238–239

G3 currencies failure
, 233–235

medium-term outlook
, 245–246

internationalisation
, 20–22, 136, 138, 140, 142, 148, 151, 179, 185, 186, 205–207, 231, 236, 237, 240, 244

and demand for money theory
, 209–210

downgrading of
, 221–223

in Europe
, 213–214

new monetary order fostering
, 220–221

obstacles
, 210–212

offshore pool as key
, 214–217

portfolio investment implication
, 227–229

pushing into South Korea
, 217–220

slowdown signs in
, 223–227

Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII)
, 141, 217

Replacement fertility rate
, 49

Return on assets (ROA)
, 126–128

Reverse migration
, 65–68

Rio Tinto
, 168

Risk premium repricing
, 122–125

Russia
, 21, 180, 188, 189, 197

Savings
, 11, 17, 21, 51, 61–63, 67, 68, 119, 124, 202, 209, 240, 241

domestic
, 5, 29, 31, 111, 113, 114, 118

excess
, 2, 39, 48, 63

falling
, 6, 52

foreign
, 113, 114, 118

See also Capital inflows

high in
, 5, 58, 59, 112, 114, 179

national
, 2, 5, 111–112

urban
, 48, 59, 61

Schumpeter, Joseph
, 98

Service trade deficit
, 158

Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme
, 141, 147, 148, 150

Shanghai Stock Exchange
, 141

Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme
, 141, 147, 148, 150

Shenzhen Stock Exchange
, 141

Shuanghui International
, 168

Silk Road Fund
, 183, 233, 237, 241

Singapore
, 84, 149, 185, 193, 215, 216

Sino-African Young Political Leaders Forum
, 243–244

Sino-Japanese deal
, 218

Sinoma & Technology Co.
, 103

Sinopec
, 173

Smithfield Foods
, 168

Soho China
, 167

Somalia
, 170

Soros, George
, 105

South Africa
, 21, 159, 170, 243

South Korea
, 13, 17, 19, 84, 118, 185, 206, 214, 215

Special Drawing Rights (SDR)
, 222–223, 233, 241

Special Economic Zones (SEZs)
, 142, 143

Sri Lanka
, 191

State Development and Investment Corporation
, 128

State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC)
, 130

State-owned-enterprises (SOE)
, 22, 31, 32, 34, 43, 82, 86, 95, 101–103, 106–107, 122, 127–129, 131–133, 155, 167–169, 171, 172, 195

corporate liabilities and
, 125–126

credit-fuelled investment of
, 76

declining share, in industrial sector
, 99

and excess capacity
, 87–91

loss-making, declining share of
, 100

productivity
, 15

reform with mixed ownership
, 128

return on equity of
, 129

Stock connect schemes
, 141, 146–148

Stock market capitalisation
, 114

Straits of Malacca, strategic importance of
, 187

Structural rebalancing
, 176

Sudan
, 170, 243

Supply-expansion model
, 81, 143

Supply-side reform

in Chinese style and
, 96–99

of Xi, in reality
, 100–101

S.W.I.F.T system
, 21, 233, 241

Swiss National Bank
, 213

Syngenta
, 163

Taiwan
, 56, 80, 197, 214, 215, 216, 218

Taiwan Stock Exchange
, 56, 57

Tencent
, 35, 148

Thailand
, 17–19, 159, 189, 193, 194, 216

Thatcher, M.
, 97

Thatcherism
, 97, 98

Tibet Mineral Development Co.
, 103

Total social financing (TSF)
, 122

flows components of
, 115

versus GDP growth
, 123

Tourist destinations
, 19

Trade balance with countries, having offshore RMB centre
, 219

Trade deficits
, 215, 217–218

Trade surplus
, 4, 5, 114, 159, 160, 214–215

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)
, 185

Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)
, 185

Transparency International
, 170, 171

Turkey
, 188, 189

Two-child policy
, 8, 10–11

Ukraine
, 235

Under capitalisation
, 84–85

Union Pay
, 243

United Kingdom
, 31, 75, 84, 95, 97, 118, 149, 181, 213, 217, 235

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
, 12

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
, 13

United States
, 13, 18, 20, 22, 23, 31, 37, 42, 50, 56, 57, 63–65, 75, 84, 91, 95, 97, 114, 118, 149, 168, 169, 174, 176, 180, 181, 185, 200, 236, 241

Urbanisation and demographics
, 6–12, 65, 80

Urban saving rate and consumption
, 61

Variable cost
, 92–93

Venezuela
, 24, 170, 171

Vietnam
, 6, 185, 193, 195, 196, 216

Waldorf-Astoria Hotel
, 167

Wang Yang
, 15

Wen Jiabao
, 39

WH Group
, 168

Workforce, shrinking
, 7

Working-age population growth
, 50

World Bank
, 54, 172, 174, 196

World Trade Organisation
, 39, 126

Xi Jinping, President
, 14–16, 20, 22, 23, 25, 27, 30, 38, 40, 59, 66, 73, 74, 75, 77, 81, 86, 90, 92, 96, 103, 117, 128, 164, 183, 197, 199, 202, 205, 231, 236, 238

financial liberalisation under
, 224–225

supply-side reform reality of
, 100–101

Xinjiang
, 196

Xinxing Cathy International Group
, 128

Yuan. See Renminbi (yuan)

Yunnan/Guangxi gateway
, 194, 197

Zambia
, 173

Zhang Gaoli
, 40

Zhou Xiaochuan
, 106

Zhou Yongkang
, 15

Zhu Rongji
, 32, 40, 90, 99, 126

Zombie firms
, 93, 116, 117, 122

slaying of
, 95–96, 121, 133