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The rule of traffic forecasting in railway logistics: the case of the central corridor in East Africa

Japhet Gabriel Mbura (Moshi University College of Cooperative and Business Studies (MUCCoBS), Moshi, United Republic of Tanzania)

Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies

ISSN: 2045-0621

Publication date: 17 October 2012


Subject area

This case study intends to add knowledge and understanding of supply chain management particularly with respect to international logistics.

Study level/applicability

The case study can be used in both undergraduate and postgraduate levels. Students pursuing Master of Science in Logistics, Supply Chain Management and those doing bachelor degrees in the same areas can have a better insight and special interest of the case. Professional boards may also use the case to empirically make students understand this area.

Case overview

The railway sub-sector in East Africa – Tanzania in particular – is an important transport mode but has a declining performance. The market share is estimated at only 4 percent of the freight market. Still knowledge about traffic, particularly for freight, is scant. The main dilemma is whether traffic of the central corridor is more intra- or inter-Tanzania. The case studies techniques appropriate for meaningful traffic forecasting and through a simple regression model it resolves the freight conflicts between Kenya rail and the Central Corridor. It provides students with applied traffic forecasting tools.

Expected learning outcomes

The case focuses on techniques of traffic forecasting, development of traffic scenarios and on issues related to intermodal transport especially between road, rail and ocean. At the end of using this Case students should be able to: explain the methods, techniques and models used in traffic forecasting; understand intermodal linkages in international Logistics; use different approaches to make logistics market assessment; and forecast traffic in all modes using different scenarios.

Supplementary materials

Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or e-mail to request teaching notes.



Mbura, J.G. (2012), "The rule of traffic forecasting in railway logistics: the case of the central corridor in East Africa", Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies, Vol. 2 No. 8.



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