The optimal interval combination forecasting model based on closeness degree and IOWHA operator under the uncertain environment

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose the optimal combination forecasting model based on closeness degree and induced ordered weighted harmonic averaging (IOWHA) operator under the uncertain environment in which the raw data are provided by interval numbers.

Design/methodology/approach

Starting from maximizing the closeness degree of combination forecasting, which is different from minimizing absolute errors, weighted coefficient vectors of combination forecasting methods are obtained. The new concepts of closeness degree for the center and radius of interval numbers sequences are put forward and the optimal interval combination forecasting model is constructed by maximizing the sum of convex combination with closeness degree of interval center and closeness degree of interval radius. The solution to the model is discussed.

Findings

The results show that this model can improve the combination forecasting accuracy efficiently compared with that of each single forecasting method.

Practical implications

The method proposed in the paper can be used to forecast future tendency in a wide ranges of fields, such as engineering, economics and management. In particular, the raw data are provided in the form of interval numbers under the uncertain environment.

Originality/value

The combination forecasting model proposed in this paper is based on closeness degree and IOWHA operator, which is a new kind of combination forecasting model with variant weights.

Citation

Chen, H., Jin, L., Li, X. and Yao, M. (2011), "The optimal interval combination forecasting model based on closeness degree and IOWHA operator under the uncertain environment", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 1 No. 3, pp. 250-260. https://doi.org/10.1108/20439371111181251