Sudden stops and currency crises

Levan Efremidze (Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies and Center for Neuroeconomics Studies, Claremont Graduate University, Claremont, California, USA)
Samuel M. Schreyer (Department of Economics, Finance, and Accounting, Fort Hays State University, Hays, Kansas, USA)
Ozan Sula (Department of Economics, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington, USA and Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies, Claremont Graduate University, Claremont, California, USA)

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

ISSN: 1757-6385

Publication date: 8 November 2011

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine empirical characteristics of two commonly mentioned expressions of international financial crisis, “sudden stops” and currency crises.

Design/methodology/approach

Sudden stop and currency crisis events are identified and empirical regularities among them are analyzed based on the annual data of 25 emerging market countries from 1990 to 2003.

Findings

Puzzlingly, these two seemingly close expressions of crises overlap less than 50 percent of the time and sudden stops more frequently precede than follow currency crises. Also the two different sudden stop measures are not strongly correlated with each other.

Research limitations/implications

This shows that it can make a great deal of difference what measure is used and suggests that studies in this area should be sure to check the robustness of their results to different measures.

Practical implications

The authors think that the proper analysis should focus on how to use these different measures to understand the nature of the crises. Thus, sudden stop and currency crisis measures should be used as complements, rather than substitutes.

Social implications

The alarming frequency of the emerging market crises during the last three decades has motivated a large volume of theoretical and empirical literature on the subject. The paper's results advance understanding of these events.

Originality/value

A large body of studies on currency crises coexists with a growing literature on sudden stops yet a majority of the studies that investigate either one of these phenomena do not mention the other. The paper adds value by investigating empirical relationships between them.

Keywords

Citation

Efremidze, L., Schreyer, S.M. and Sula, O. (2011), "Sudden stops and currency crises", Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Vol. 3 No. 4, pp. 304-321. https://doi.org/10.1108/17576381111182891

Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2011, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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