Regional house prices: An application of a two‐equation model to the Swedish housing market

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study is to investigate why housing prices differ between regions, and to estimate the speed‐of‐adjustment.

Design/methodology/approach

A variety of factors explains the differences in the prices of single‐family houses. Changes in disposable income over time and across regions as well as the cost of capital are important determinants. The model is based on a DiPasquale and Wheaton model where the developments of the house prices are a function of macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, changes in employment and interest rate. It is estimated on a two‐equation error correction model: first, the long‐run price equation and, second, a short‐run price model.

Findings

The estimates suggest that the speed‐of‐adjustment ranges from 16 to 78 per cent (around 50 per cent on average) depending on the region. In regions with a low population density, higher price adjustment rates are observed. Moreover, the speed‐of‐adjustment is higher in an upturn economy than in a downturn reflecting that negative housing stock adjustments is much slower than positive adjustments.

Originality/value

The main contribution is that the speed‐of‐adjustment to the long‐run equilibrium price for 21 regions is estimated instead of at a national level and, furthermore, cyclical asymmetry in responses is tested and such differences are found. It is estimated that the rate of adjustment to long‐run equilibrium price varies considerably between regions.

Citation

Wilhelmsson, M. (2008), "Regional house prices: An application of a two‐equation model to the Swedish housing market", International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 1 No. 1, pp. 33-51. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538270810861148