Technological risk: a criterion for the optimisation of future EU energy supply scenarios

Andrea Carpignano (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy)
Chiara Nironi (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy)
Francesco Ganci (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy)

International Journal of Energy Sector Management

ISSN: 1750-6220

Publication date: 12 April 2011



The research activity presented in this paper has the objective of developing models for the evaluation of technological risk and loss of production due to failures, which are among the criterions that enable the choice of optimal scenarios for energy supply. This activity is based on the European Project “Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security” (REACCESS), which aims to develop an analytical tool to analyse scenarios for future secure European Union (EU) energy supply.


The paper proposes an innovative approach, since nowadays a generalised analytic model for risk assessment in large‐scale energetic systems does not exist. In particular, the methodology adopted includes models to assess risk for people safety, risk for the environment and availability for corridors and the related infrastructures. As regards technological risk, accidents producing loss of lives in the population and environmental damage are taken into account; while for the loss of production primary attention is paid to technical failures and maintenance.


Since the analytic models developed perform a large‐scale assessment, they must be flexible and simplified to adapt to different situations and to be easily updated when different future scenarios are investigated. Details of the analysis depend on the precision of data collected and inserted in the models. The damage assessment is affected by deficiency and uncertainties related to territorial and statistical data. Nevertheless, the outcomes obtained for each energy commodity are reasonable and often comparable to literature data.


Based on this study output, technological risk can be considered, more systematically than in the past, in the selection of EU strategies for future energy supply. The corridors social cost is included in future strategies selection, in addition to purely economical and environmental evaluations.



Carpignano, A., Nironi, C. and Ganci, F. (2011), "Technological risk: a criterion for the optimisation of future EU energy supply scenarios", International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp. 81-100.

Download as .RIS



Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2011, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Please note you might not have access to this content

You may be able to access this content by login via Shibboleth, Open Athens or with your Emerald account.
If you would like to contact us about accessing this content, click the button and fill out the form.
To rent this content from Deepdyve, please click the button.