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Time to market prediction using type‐2 fuzzy sets

P. Baguley (School of Engineering, Durham University, Durham, UK)
T. Page (Department of Design and Technology, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK)
V. Koliza (Smiths Detection Ltd, Watford, UK)
P. Maropoulos (School of Engineering, Durham University, Durham, UK)

Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management

ISSN: 1741-038X

Article publication date: 1 June 2006



Time to market is the essential aim of any new product introduction process. Performance measures are simple quantities that indicate the state of manufacturing organisations and are used as the basis of decision‐making at this crucial early stage of the process. Fuzzy set theory is a method for using qualitative data and subjective opinion. Fuzzy sets have been used extensively in manufacturing for applications including control, decision‐making, and estimation. Type‐2 fuzzy sets are a novel extension of type‐1 fuzzy sets. Aims to examine this subject.


This research explores the increased use of type‐2 fuzzy sets in manufacturing. In particular, type‐2 fuzzy sets are used to model “the words that mean different things to different people”.


A model that can leverage design process knowledge and predict time to market from performance measures is a potentially valuable tool for decision making and continuous improvement. A number of data sources, such as process maps, from previous research into time to market in a high technology products company, are used to structure and build a type‐2 fuzzy logic model for the prediction of time to market.


This paper presents a demonstration of how the type‐2 fuzzy logic model works and provides directions for further research into the design process for time to market.



Baguley, P., Page, T., Koliza, V. and Maropoulos, P. (2006), "Time to market prediction using type‐2 fuzzy sets", Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, Vol. 17 No. 4, pp. 513-520.



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