Modelling rapid climate changes and analysing their impacts
Management of Environmental Quality
Article publication date: 13 June 2008
The purpose of this investigation is the modeling of rapid climate changes (RCC) and analysis of their impacts in ecological and economic systems, in particular, their responses on the rate of RCC and assessment of the considered factors most influenced by RCC.
For modeling impacts of the RCC, the model WORLD3 has been used. Since it is expected that the greatest impacts of RCC be in energy, in this case, the WORLD3 model has been used under the assumption that RCC influences the rapid decrease of energy during a time period of one year. Therefore, the results will be more explicit than in the case when the change occurs gradually during a longer time period.
The results obtained in this work show that increasing the rate of RCC can be associated also with nonlinear responses of economic and ecological factors. It is seen from the analysis that the later the RCC occurs in the time scale considered, the lesser the consequences for ecological and economic systems affected by the RCC.
From these results, it can be concluded that adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies is needed, especially for the factors that are most affected by RCC – in this case, the population and energy, exert efforts for reducing the causes of RCC, and prompt action to mitigate global warming as the main cause of RCC. Also, these results show the possibility of early development of potential mitigation and adaptation strategies and allow for a better evaluation of risk exposure.
This work is original, as no such analysis has been carried out about impacts of RCC in economic and ecological systems. The paper provides data and results upon which further research could be carried out.
Bekteshi, S., Kabashi, S., Šlaus, I., Zidanšek, A. and Najdovski, D. (2008), "Modelling rapid climate changes and analysing their impacts", Management of Environmental Quality, Vol. 19 No. 4, pp. 422-432. https://doi.org/10.1108/14777830810878614
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