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Biomedical technology growth: a case study of forecasting in pulsed electromagnetic field therapy

Leon Pretorius (Research Group for Systems Energy and Innovation, Graduate School of Technology Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)
Dietmar H. Winzker (Research Group for Systems Energy and Innovation, Graduate School of Technology Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 30 August 2011

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to explore the benefit of forecasting emerging biomedical therapy technologies as well as the rate of diffusion of resultant biomedical products in the context of management of technology.

Design/methodology/approach

The research method is exploratory using a case study approach. Techniques such as bibliometric analysis and the Bass diffusion model are utilized to assess the growth rate and market penetration of pulsed electromagnetic field therapy (PEMF) as a technology.

Findings

The penetration and growth rate of user acceptance of the technology in a global context are simulated across a 15‐year period. The technology forecasting model is also used in a case study to simulate the penetration of a product using ten years' medical application data of a patented pulsed electromagnetic field for biomedical therapy application in the global context. Useful correlation between bibliometric data for PEMF and real data for the case study is illustrated.

Research limitations/implications

The research is limited to the case of PEMF data presented. Further research may be done on other PEMF technology applications.

Practical implications

Aspects of a holistic management model that was developed for high technology companies are invoked in the practical realisation of the professional paradigm shift required when an emerging biomedical therapy technology is in the process of becoming mainstream.

Originality/value

It has been shown that technology diffusion traces exist for PEMF therapy technology as is evident from the bibliometric PEMF global data presented. Furthermore it is possible to simulate the PEMF therapy technology diffusion process with a Bass diffusion model incorporating innovation imitation and market size coefficients.

Keywords

Citation

Pretorius, L. and Winzker, D.H. (2011), "Biomedical technology growth: a case study of forecasting in pulsed electromagnetic field therapy", Foresight, Vol. 13 No. 5, pp. 61-69. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681111170220

Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2011, Emerald Group Publishing Limited