On the use of studies of the future for organizational change in Dutch government ministries

Abstract

Purpose

An uncertain future means that Dutch government ministries need to think about not only what new policies have to be developed, but also how to organize themselves in the future. This paper aims to present an overview and analysis of various studies of the futures by and about Dutch ministries that show that these studies vary considerably, in terms of their process and cause, that the context in which they come about plays a major role and that the various ministries tend to take the same trends into account (for instance “life‐long‐learning”, sustainable development and the emergence of the demanding citizen).

Design/methodology/approach

The paper case studies: 11 different reports from nine different Dutch ministries. In each ministry an in‐depth interview with one or two representatives was held. The transcripts were summarized, structured, and analyzed.

Findings

The use of studies of the future for organizational change in Dutch ministries is very diverse. More and more images and other ways of visualizing the future are becoming important. Dutch ministries should find a good balance between hiring external expertise and using inside knowledge and expertise.

Research limitations/implications

Because this is a case study it is questionable whether the findings are also valid for non‐researched ministries, especially since the research ministries and (their) studies of the future are very diverse.

Practical implications

More discussion is needed about these futures studies in the Government‐wide Strategic Council. Government‐wide studies of the future should be made to provide ministries with a common background in building up a future vision for (more balanced) policy making. There should be more involvement of external experts and stakeholders in the process of futures studies.

Originality/value

This is the first case study that focuses specifically on the use of studies of the future for governmental change (instead of focusing on. for instance, developing new policies or strategies).

Citation

van der Duin, P., Dirven, J., Hazeu, C., van de Linde, E. and Rademaker, P. (2010), "On the use of studies of the future for organizational change in Dutch government ministries", Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 4, pp. 23-36. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681011062979