2011 Trendspotting for the Next Decade

Citation

Smith, J.E. (2010), "2011 Trendspotting for the Next Decade", Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 1, pp. 79-80. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681011020218

General comments

This is a fast produced, fast paced easy reading book that seems to be aimed at popular media and marketing “types”. It contains some intriguing observations and lots of so what kinds of ideas and opinions that are by the process of their identification elevated into what the author believes will be consequential trends. From the tendency to list rather than elaborate and analyze, to the “cutsy” tone of much of the writing, the book is clearly not intended for academic or professional readers, but may appeal to mainstream marketing and sales personnel – although it would seem as if even that market share might be too critical and so the popular mass culture would by default therefore constitute the principal target audience.

Elaborated comments

In citing Marshall McLuhan's quote at the start: “the future of the book is the blurb”, the author clearly stakes his turf – this book is one long and fairly tedious blurb with little reflection on implications, even if the many observations called trends are indeed or in fact become, significant. Two further indicators of intent at the start are: the author used a Blackberry to draft most of the book and he admits to being open to sponsorship.

The work consists of multiple short chapters and one gains the impression that the author considers that more is either easier to chronicle or better because volume enables diversity. This leads to a book that really becomes a caricature of futures analyses through its reliance on a series of largely unrelated personal insights and anecdotes, contexted by such introductory phrases as this quote in the introduction:

I can't introduce this with any more babble. I will say, parenthetically that this book is all about me and anyone who has problems with that should skip quickly to the self‐something or other chapter and see why you won't get anywhere complaining about it”.

The author also suggests that we as readers just dive in and accept the trends as he calls them. He for example tells us that a good trendspotter “knows how to separate the wheat from the chaff, how to distinguish today's passing fancy or fading passion from tomorrow's hot new item du jour” but then offers no substantive insights (instead a list of tactics is included containing advice such as: ask the right questions, share the sights, and influence the trends) into how one actually learns or acquires such a capacity – other than trying to swim in the complexity of stimuli that abound in the turbulence of the near future.

The book is also somewhat repetitious, with several sections focused on similar portrayals of key definitions – most of which are defined more colloquially than practically: For example here is how the author defines a trend early in the book (p. 29):

A trend is something that is just beginning to percolate – but is happening in a significant enough manner that we can see how it is going to change us. Somehow.

To enforce a point, trends enjoyed by a few today will be experienced by many tomorrow and by all in a bit. Gosh I really hope someone is listening.

A trend is what is about to hit. I can't keep stressing how much you have to be alert to notice something that will, wo, get everyone moving in the same direction. That is what to look for.

Given this definition – reasonable even if a bit on the sensational side, it is surprising how trivial and trite many of the trends identified actually are. Here are a few:

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  When your computer shuts down and you cannot get it back on, it will make you sick (p. 134).

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  TV Networks and cable companies made appointment TV go poof (p. 142).

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  Fame is morally neutral, so learn how to be more famous than ever before, or you are going to fail at gaining attention (p. 169).

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  What's with all the online searching – what happened to finding it on our own? (p. 233).

In conclusion, this book is a work of pop sociology and anecdotal observation disguised as a guide to the near term future (2011). It is clearly not a serious or evidence based work of futures research and analysis. While it will contain, as any futures or forward speculating conjecture will, some genuine nuggets of insight and new lenses for the ever changing kaleidoscope of reality unfolding ahead of us and – looking further ahead – within our imaginations, in my estimation. It is not a sufficiently serious work to merit the attention of Foresight readers. Those who are parents of young teenagers may find it opens up useful conversation opportunities with their children about how change is continually shifting the bases of culture and society.