Five promising methods for health foresight

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to show through empirical examples how five foresight methods have provided value in medicine and global health, and to argue for greater use of health foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

Through evaluation, literature search, and personal experiences, five approaches were identified where health foresight has shown strong value: forecasting, scenario planning, Delphi, technology roadmapping, and mass collaboration. For each approach, compelling examples are given, and usage and potential discussed.

Findings

There is great opportunity to learn from and expand on past successes, and to customize foresight methods to help decision making in medicine and global health. The range of novel applications to date provides clear evidence that applying foresight methods to health can help prepare for the future, including development of policy and health interventions.

Research limitations/implications

Metrics for the impact of health foresight are not widely used, and could be a focus of future research.

Practical implications

By seeing compelling examples of diverse foresight methods in medicine and global health, readers will be better equipped to improve health systems and interventions, and prepare for future public health incidents.

Originality/value

The paper brings together discussion of a range of health foresight success stories, and suggests potential customizations of foresight for the health field. Readers who are health professionals or involved in making policy for health systems will gain a toolbox for creative planning. Readers who are foresight professionals will gain a better understanding of which foresight methods have shown value in medicine and global health, and potential refinement of foresight techniques for health applications.

Citation

Masum, H., Ranck, J. and Singer, P.A. (2010), "Five promising methods for health foresight", Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 1, pp. 54-66. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681011020182