The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Peter Bishop (Associate Professor at the University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USA.)
Andy Hines (Senior Director of Consulting at Social Technologies, Washington, DC, USA.)
Terry Collins (Research Assistant at the University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USA.)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Publication date: 27 February 2007

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.

Design/methodology/approach

The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes.

Findings

The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each.

Practical implications

Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques.

Originality/value

Scenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

Keywords

Citation

Bishop, P., Hines, A. and Collins, T. (2007), "The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques", Foresight, Vol. 9 No. 1, pp. 5-25. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680710727516

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Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2007, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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