How will ICTs affect our environment in 2020?

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to present the results of a research project that the Institute for Prospective Technology Studies commissioned to research the possible effects of information and communication technologies (ICT) on a set of environmental indicators in 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The project adopted an innovative methodology combining qualitative scenario‐building and quantitative modelling.

Findings

The general conclusion was that the impact of ICT is roughly between −20 and +30 percent. Therefore there are significant opportunities for improving environmental sustainability through ICTs, which can rationalise energy management in housing (or facilities), make passenger and freight transport more efficient, and enable a product‐to‐service shift across the economy.

Originality/value

The impact of ICT should accordingly be taken into account by environmental policies in order to ensure that ICT applications make a positive contribution to environmental outcomes, and, at the same time, to suppress rebound effects.

Citation

Rodríguez Casal, C., Van Wunnik, C., Delgado Sancho, L., Claude Burgelman, J. and Desruelle, P. (2005), "How will ICTs affect our environment in 2020?", Foresight, Vol. 7 No. 1, pp. 77-87. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510581330