Foresight – using scenarios to shape the future of agricultural research

Abstract

In the year 2000, the Agricultural Research Business Unit (ARBU) of the Swiss Federal Office of Agriculture (FOA) decided to carry out a foresight process. Foresight means taking a systematic look at the future in order to be able to draw conclusions about actions taken or not taken in the present. Foresight is now best practise and is applied internationally by a growing number of countries and organisations, particularly in the areas of research and development, regional planning and business planning. The scenario technique seemed to us to be a suitable way of tackling the assignment. Over recent months we held a total of four scenario workshops, each of several days. Participants included people from a wide area connected with agricultural research together with representatives of related social fields. The result was two very different, but internally consistent scenarios (alternative ideas of the future). Based on the two scenarios developed, we drew up a master guideline with concrete measures fit to face the future. The results show that as far as organisational measures are concerned, staff motivation and training are key factors. With regard to technical measures, much attention is focused on the topic of food safety and health. It is now up to decision makers to determine the extent to which they accept and implement the recommendations of foresight in strategic business planning.

Citation

Schwab, P., Cerutti, F. and Hélène von Reibnitz, U. (2003), "Foresight – using scenarios to shape the future of agricultural research", Foresight, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp. 55-61. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310471299