Imitation analysis: Early prediction of the market demand for major innovations

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to describe a method of estimating the likelihood that a person with particular characteristics will imitate a particular new behaviour (i.e. the use of an innovation). This estimation can be used to provide a new form of forecast for the likely market demand for an innovation.

Design/methodology/approach

This method, termed imitation analysis, is based on imitation theories from the behavioural sciences and is applied in two recent case studies in The Netherlands: broadcast TV on mobile phones and a mobile friend‐network service.

Findings

These cases illustrate how: the market segments with the highest potential can be identified; marketing communication can be focused on specific issues important for each segment (e.g. based on the highest imitation potential); product design can be improved (by highlighting the characteristics with the most room for improving the imitation potential); and market demand can be modelled (the overall chance of imitation occurring).

Practical implications

Management implications for the two services, as well as the usefulness of imitation analysis in forecasting studies, are discussed.

Originality/value

The paper expands on original work published in this journal in 2005, showing the value of the approach in real‐world settings.

Citation

Langley, D.J., Pals, N., Ortt, J.R. and Bijmolt, T.H.A. (2009), "Imitation analysis: Early prediction of the market demand for major innovations", European Journal of Innovation Management, Vol. 12 No. 1, pp. 5-24. https://doi.org/10.1108/14601060910928157