Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World

Citation

Henry, P. (2006), "Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World", Qualitative Market Research, Vol. 9 No. 4, pp. 426-428. https://doi.org/10.1108/13522750610689122

This book is concerned with predicting the future. Any talk about claiming to see through uncertainty raises interest and also some scepticism. Obviously, every organisation would be ecstatic if given a crystal ball that accurately predicted important changes to the environment in which they operate. Pre‐empting change in social, cultural, technological, and political arenas informs strategy development and provides leverage for competitive advantage. At the operational level, business must make both short‐ and long‐term forecasts in order to engage in any meaningful planning. Yet all too often the assumptions underpinning good planning are way off the mark. We know that our world is in a state of historically rapid change and that there are many interconnected factors that increase the complexity that we face. Seeing the future involves connecting the dots between a multiplicity of factors.

Yet, Kelly points out that human‐beings desire certainty and simplicity. We are attuned to finding patterns and regularities in messiness and ambiguity. The figure and ground demonstrations in introductory psychology courses clearly demonstrate this. We look for the “through‐line” to discern a coherent story. In doing so, we focus on just a portion of the information available to us – the part that “seems” important – and we settle on the most plausible explanation based on past experience. This same approach applies to business and personal life. In fact, business leaders often value those who take strong, yet simple positions, since this conveys strength of conviction and clarity of thought. It is well‐known that managers often look for what they expect. The trouble is that great change reduces the value of past experience and increased complexity means we have more difficulty assimilating divergent information. Kelly argues that in looking for simple patterns managers are “capable of spectacular misinterpretation of what is really happening.”

The book starts by pointing out that part of the challenge of predicting the future lies in understanding the present. That in itself is no simple matter. Managers often “see” what they are looking for and our patterns of thinking are extremely resistant to change. Another part of the problem is that our minds are designed to think in term of categories – Kelly calls this the trap of either/or logic. The popular, business, and academic literature is replete with such examples. In the same business magazine I recently saw two separate articles – one around the theme “Australians are being more health‐conscious” and the other focussing on our “broadening waistlines.” Which is it? Or can both be happening simultaneously? Kelly argues that in a world that is becoming more ambiguous and uncertain, people are often responding in the opposite direction by taking polarised positions. For example, globalization is either good, or bad for business; environmental degradation will either destroy the planet, or is really a non‐issue. Either/or logic appears to simplify the world. Yet, in reality it provides false certainty.

Kelly systematically lays out an argument that the changes ahead are not only complex, but are also paradoxical and contradictory in nature. This calls for a change in logic from either/or to both/and. Seven dynamic tensions are used to illustrate the reasons for need to change logic. He quotes F. Scott Fitzgerald's famous line; “the test of a first‐rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time.” Kelly asserts that businessmen will need to work hard to develop this ability if they are to make sense of the present and the future.

One dynamic tension described in the book is that rather than taking alternative positions as to whether society is becoming more secular, or more attracted to sacred/religious appeals, we should consider that both trends can happen simultaneously. Secular notions of reason, science and knowledge have driven modernity. Yet, fundamentalist movements in every major religion have emerged in response to secularisation. Other reactions against secularisation have seen the rise of spirituality. The point is that either/or logic cannot help us understand the future in this arena, since both forces are active. A second example of dynamic tension is that of power and vulnerability. Affluence has lead to economic empowerment of large segments of Western populations. Yet, this is also a period where there is tremendous personal insecurity in terms of physical safety (crime and terrorism), and in terms of job security. A third example is the tension felt between the benefits of rapid technological advance and the pushback stemming from fears of depersonalisation, unintended consequences, or moral concerns. In other words people see technology as both good and bad.

The book concludes with discussion of “the new realities for business.” Kelly argues that the tensions illustrated above are likely to result in “trustworthiness” becoming an increasingly valued business quality. Tensions create doubt and unease that will spill over into more sceptical evaluations of business and brands. This means that business will have to instil a deep ethical consciousness throughout the organisation. This will require ethical considerations to be become deeply embedded within core organising principles of the business – not just as an adjunct. At another level mastering uncertainty will require businesses to scan the world more extensively, to consider multiple possibilities, and connect diverse perspectives. Kelly advocates that engaging in “flexible collaborations” will become increasingly important for business survival. This collaboration will include actively working with customers, suppliers and other partners in the public and (even) competitive spheres to “co‐create” value. He argues that this web of relationships will foster a capability for adaptation. Another suggestion made in the book is that business may have to de‐emphasise the current focus on growth and reorient towards sustainable success and survival. This idea goes hand‐in‐hand with developing deep customer trust. In doing so, Kelly implores corporations to ask themselves “What must be true about our organisation to make it safe to assume that, 50 years from now, most people will be happy we exist and wish us well.”

You can agree or disagree on some of the specific trends and predictions proposed in the book. However, the value of the book lies in Kelly's suggestion that paradoxical thinking is more and more appropriate as complexity increases. Managers need to adopt both/and logic if they are to grasp the multiplicity of changes sweeping our world.