Decision‐driven scenarios for assessing four levels of uncertainty

Abstract

Some classes of scenario planning tools and techniques are designed to inform near‐term strategic decisions. In addition, some of these are more appropriate for lower levels of uncertainty, while others are best suited for highly uncertain, truly ambiguous business environments. This paper provides a typology of scenario planning tools and techniques that enables managers to identify the best approach to follow in various circumstances. By choosing the right scenario‐planning tool for near‐term strategy decisions, companies can generate the foresight necessary to prevail in today’s turbulent markets. Though most scenario exercises are intended to enrich an organization’s awareness of potential environmental discontinuity in the long‐term, some classes of scenario planning tools and techniques are designed to inform near‐term strategic decisions. Some of these tools for assessing the near term are more appropriate for lower levels of uncertainty, and others are best suited for highly uncertain, truly ambiguous business environments. This paper provides a typology of scenario planning tools and techniques that enables managers to identify the best approach to follow in various circumstances. By choosing the right scenario‐planning tool for near‐term strategy decisions, managers can generate the foresight necessary to help their organization prevail in today’s turbulent markets.

Citation

Courtney, H. (2003), "Decision‐driven scenarios for assessing four levels of uncertainty", Strategy & Leadership, Vol. 31 No. 1, pp. 14-22. https://doi.org/10.1108/10878570310455015