The purpose of this paper is to present the results obtained from numerical models of radiant energy exchange in instruments typically used to measure various characteristics of the Earth's ocean‐atmosphere system.
Numerical experiments were designed and performed in a statistical environment, based on the Monte Carlo ray‐trace (MCRT) method, developed to model thermal and optical systems. Results from the derived theoretical equations were then compared to the results from the numerical experiments.
A rigorous statistical protocol is defined and demonstrated for establishing the uncertainty and related confidence interval in results obtained from MCRT models of radiant exchange.
The methodology developed in this paper should be adapted to predict the uncertainty of more comprehensive parameters such as the total radiative heat transfer.
Results can be used to estimate the number of energy bundles necessary to be traced per surface element in a MCRT model to obtain a desired relative error.
This paper offers a new methodology to predict the uncertainty of parameters in high‐level modeling and analysis of instruments that accumulate the long‐term database required to correlate observed trends with human activity and natural phenomena. The value of this paper lies in the interest in understanding the climatological role of the Earth's radiative energy budget.
Sánchez, M. and Mahan, J. (2010), "Predicting uncertainty and confidence intervals in thermal radiative modeling using the Monte Carlo ray‐trace method", International Journal of Numerical Methods for Heat & Fluid Flow, Vol. 20 No. 1, pp. 66-83. https://doi.org/10.1108/09615531011008127Download as .RIS
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