A systematic approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting

Abstract

Purpose

In operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting practice, there are usually many TC track guidances available from various official sources. When they do not converge, the guidances need to be ensembled by systematic approaches to formulate the best possible track as an official local TC track forecasting.

Design/methodology/approach

The main approach of the research is focused on finding an atmospheric environment favourable for TC survival (genesis) with the help of commonly accepted knowledge in atmospheric physics that reveals mechanism driving evolution and change of synoptic patterns in the atmosphere, using routinely available observational data, i.e. identification of TCF/TCR areas. The techniques developed are then applied to ensemble the TC track guidances available operationally to formulate an official TC track forecasting.

Findings

The results show that TC movement is very dependent on the atmospheric environment surrounding a TC. Whether the environment is favourable (TCF) or resistant (TCR) to survival of a TC system is a vital factor to determine where the TC moving. A systematic approach to the identification of the TCR/TCF areas is a key technique to ensemble available TC track guidances to formulate an official TC track forecasting.

Originality/value

In operational TC forecasting, TC track forecasting is the most important and difficult issue. The results indicate that the systematic approach to TC track forecasting has philosophical justification, solid scientific ground, sound logic and practical viability, and thus, make TC track forecasting easy and effective.

Citation

Peng, T., Joe Kwon, H., Lee, W. and Lim, J. (2005), "A systematic approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting", Kybernetes, Vol. 34 No. 5, pp. 681-693. https://doi.org/10.1108/03684920510595364