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Temporal causality and the dynamics of crime in Turkey

Ferda Halicioglu (Department of Economics, Yeditepe University, Istanbul, Turkey)

International Journal of Social Economics

ISSN: 0306-8293

Article publication date: 27 July 2012




The purpose of this paper is to study empirically the dynamics of crime in Turkey at aggregate and disaggregate levels and provide empirical evidence of temporal causality between crime, health, income, divorce, urbanization and security expenditures.


The paper employs bounds testing cointegration procedure, augmented causality tests and variance decompositions.


The empirical results suggest the existence of cointegration amongst the variables. Augmented Granger causality tests and variance decomposition analyses indicate the different level, long‐term associations between the variables.

Practical implications

Conclusions drawn from this study could be useful for the policy makers and practitioners in international law organizations.


The paper provides first‐time, comprehensive, time‐series evidence on the dynamics of crime in Turkey using the framework of cointegration and causality tests.



Halicioglu, F. (2012), "Temporal causality and the dynamics of crime in Turkey", International Journal of Social Economics, Vol. 39 No. 9, pp. 704-720.



Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2012, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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