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The formation of conventional expectations in Keynesian fundamental uncertainty

Theodore T. Koutsobinas (Department of Statistics, Aegean University, Athens, Greece)

International Journal of Social Economics

ISSN: 0306-8293

Article publication date: 1 November 2004



This article develops an analysis of the conventional formation of expectations by means of introducing an overlooked factor in the analysis: the role of inference. Individual inferences and changes in evidential weight of beliefs and in the state of confidence are integrated with an analysis of the conventional character of expectations in a manner that is consistent with evidence provided by research in social psychology. This approach provides the link between the “agency” approach and the “structure” approach in Keynesian analysis that has been stressed as an important development. It also improves our understanding of the mechanisms underlying economic behavior under uncertainty such as liquidity‐preference in different social and cultural settings.



Koutsobinas, T.T. (2004), "The formation of conventional expectations in Keynesian fundamental uncertainty", International Journal of Social Economics, Vol. 31 No. 11/12, pp. 1109-1119.



Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2004, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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