What causes China's property boom?

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the sources of China's property boom from 2000 to 2009. The basic research hypothesis is that the property boom is largely associated with Chinese local governments’ incentive structure which prioritizes GDP growth for evaluating their performance.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the fixed effects panel data regression model of 35 major Chinese cities, the determinants of property investment, property price and land sale price are identified. In particular, the roles of local governments in boosting the property boom are discussed.

Findings

Property investment is driven by accelerating urbanization process, easier availability of bank loans and more housing sales. Meanwhile, higher disposable income, more housing sales and increasing property investment are identified to mainly account for the property price escalation. It is further demonstrated that increasing property price has positive effect on land sale price. Local governments have quickened the urbanization process, released more bank loans and sold more land through public auction to support property development, sustain property price and increase land sale revenue. Such behaviour is closely related to Chinese local governments’ incentive structure.

Originality/value

Previous studies have not empirically tested the relationships between local governments’ pursuits for higher revenue in the urban land market and China's magnified and sustained property boom over the past decade. A prosperous property market is conducive to economic development and hence local officials’ chances of political promotion.

Citation

Li, J. (2013), "What causes China's property boom?", Property Management, Vol. 31 No. 1, pp. 4-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/02637471311295388