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Forecasting dynamic market share relationships

Nobuhiko Terui (Professor, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan)

Marketing Intelligence & Planning

ISSN: 0263-4503

Publication date: 1 April 2000

Abstract

In market share analysis, it is fully recognized that we have often inadmissibly predicted market share, which means that some of predictors take the values outside the range [0, 1] and the total sum of predicted shares is not always one, so‐called “logical inconsistency”. Based on the Bayesian VAR model, proposes a dynamic market share model with logical consistency. The proposed method makes it possible to forecast not only the values of market share themselves, but also various dynamic market share relations across different brands or companies. The daily scanner data from the Nikkei POS information system are analyzed by the proposed method.

Keywords

Citation

Terui, N. (2000), "Forecasting dynamic market share relationships", Marketing Intelligence & Planning, Vol. 18 No. 2, pp. 67-77. https://doi.org/10.1108/02634500010318610

Publisher

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MCB UP Ltd

Copyright © 2000, MCB UP Limited