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Testing the hypothesis of long‐run money neutrality in the Middle East

George B. Tawadros (School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia)

Journal of Economic Studies

ISSN: 0144-3585

Article publication date: 30 January 2007

1110

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis of long‐run money neutrality for Egypt, Jordan and Morocco using seasonal cointegration techniques.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses seasonal integration and cointegration techniques to test the neutrality of money hypothesis for three Middle Eastern economies, using quarterly data on money, prices and real income. The benefit of using this technique lies in its ability to distinguish between cointegration at different frequencies.

Findings

The empirical results show that money is cointegrated with prices, but not with output at the zero frequency for Egypt, Jordan and Morocco. This suggests that money affects nominal but not real variables in the long run, implying that money is neutral in these three Middle Eastern economies.

Practical implications

The implication of this finding for policy analysis suggests that the anti‐inflationary policy prescription espoused by the monetarist school should be followed in these three Middle Eastern countries, in order to curb inflation.

Originality/value

The paper provides further evidence in support of money neutrality using an unconventional approach for three developing Middle Eastern economies.

Keywords

Citation

Tawadros, G.B. (2007), "Testing the hypothesis of long‐run money neutrality in the Middle East", Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 34 No. 1, pp. 13-28. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580710717192

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2007, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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