An Approach for Selecting Times Series Forecasting Models

Essam Mahmoud (North Texas State University, Denton, Texas, USA)
C. Carl Pegels (State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA)

International Journal of Operations & Production Management

ISSN: 0144-3577

Publication date: 1 March 1990

Abstract

A method is developed for evaluating forecasting models with respect to both error and complexity in forecasting. Several types of forecasting accuracy measures (MSE, MPE, MAPE, Theil′s U‐Statistic and a loss cost function) are examined and the approach is illustrated using short‐term forecasting methods, and weekly and four‐weekly data. The approach can, however, be applied equally to immediate, medium‐ and long‐term forecasting.

Keywords

Citation

Mahmoud, E. and Pegels, C. (1990), "An Approach for Selecting Times Series Forecasting Models", International Journal of Operations & Production Management, Vol. 10 No. 3, pp. 50-60. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443579010003003

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Publisher

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MCB UP Ltd

Copyright © 1990, MCB UP Limited

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