Can the US stock market be Shanghaied? Evidence of the impact of China's emerging stock market

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the US and China stock markets between 2000 and 2007. This study attempts to categorize the event on February 27, 2007, i.e. 9 per cent plunge in Shanghai stock market followed by the $1.5 trillion global market shake out, as irrational, i.e. herd mentality.

Design/methodology/approach

To test for this relationship, the Morgan Stanley Capital International daily price index data was collected from April 15, 2002 to April 12, 2007. Daily Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nikkei 225 (Nikkei), Hang Seng Index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSECI) were collected from finance.yahoo.com from January 1, 2000 until April 3, 2007. The running beta and correlation coefficients, defined as the cumulative coefficients, are used to determine the co‐movement of the SSECI and DJIA.

Findings

The strength of the relationship between the US and China stock markets has significantly increased since 2005, maybe attributed to China's policy change in 2005 to move toward a more free market economy. Because of the unique characteristics of China's stock market, it is hard to conclude that the $1.5 trillion global market shake out was ignited by the 9 per cent plunge in the Shanghai stock market on February 27, 2007.

Research limitations/implications

China's economic reform is unique since the country followed no blue print for the economic institutions to model after and policies were adopted through experimentation. Fueled by its fast growing economy (10.4 per cent in 2005 and 10.7 per cent in 2006), using past patterns or trends to predict the future of China's financial market requires further research as its stock market emerges. Research in this area requires more observations as China's stock market grows and becomes more transparent.

Practical implications

Results here suggest that the strength of the relationship between the US and China stock markets has significantly increased since 2005 and that China's 2005 policy moves toward a more free market economy are most likely responsible.

Originality/value

A better understanding of the influence of China's emerging stock market on the global stock market offers significant value to portfolio managers worldwide.

Citation

Huang, Y. and Bacon, F.W. (2009), "Can the US stock market be Shanghaied? Evidence of the impact of China's emerging stock market", Management Research News, Vol. 32 No. 5, pp. 469-476. https://doi.org/10.1108/01409170910952967