The role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to undertake a critical consideration of the role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices through the dual theoretical perspectives of social constructionism and narrative.

Design/methodology/approach

The scholarly literature in the fields of strategy and scenario thinking, sensemaking, social construction and narrative are analysed and critically discussed, with their major contributions to the debate identified.

Findings

The main findings suggest that transformational change is observed to occur through inductive strategizing at the organization's periphery, in contrast with deductive strategy making at its centre. This causes one to question one's understanding of the strategist as a rational planner. An alternative perception of the strategist as interpretive bricoleur is offered. Adopting a scenario outlook and developing the capacities that comprise sensemaking are said to enhance the abilities of the inductive strategist. Through this, managers are more open to the unexpected and are able to construct meaning from uncertainty and ambiguity, laying the foundations for transformational strategizing. Originality/value – This paper is of value to both practitioners and scholars. For those involved in practical scenario construction it proposes a refocusing of scenarios from influencing managers’ decision making to enhancing their sensemaking capacities. For scholars, it supports and joins the call for strategy researchers to focus on how strategy in organisations is constructed and offers conceptual pointers on what may prove fruitful avenues to pursue. The paper concludes by proposing that through prospective sensemaking individuals can construct meaningful interpretations of their socially constructed worlds.

Citation

Wright, A. (2005), "The role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices", Management Decision, Vol. 43 No. 1, pp. 86-101. https://doi.org/10.1108/00251740510572506