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Probabilistic design for turbine disk at high temperature

Dianyin Hu (School of Jet Propulsion, Beihang University, Beijing, China)
Rongqiao Wang (School of Jet Propulsion, Beihang University, Beijing, China)
Zhi Tao (School of Jet Propulsion, Beihang University, Beijing, China)

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology

ISSN: 0002-2667

Article publication date: 5 July 2011




A probabilistic‐based design for turbine disk at high temperature can quantify risk and thus identify areas of possible overdesign (conservatism). Moreover, the need for cost‐effective designs has resulted in the development of probabilistic design to quantify the effects of these uncertainties so as to improve the reliability of the component. This paper aims to address these issues.


The flow for probabilistic design established through investigating traditional design methods of the turbine disk at high temperature is divided into the processes of crack initiation and crack growth to find important design inputs at each course, where the probabilistic design criterion has been built based on the deterministic criteria and successful experiences.


The probabilistic‐based design procedure has been demonstrated by taking the reliability design of crack initiation process for turbine disk as the example. The reliability analysis for the disk life after optimization analysis was completed by considering random parameters reflecting the uncertainties. The results showed there was a margin in design for disk life referred to as the probabilistic criterion. This measure was taken by redesigning the structure to reduce the disk's weight within the range of reliability.

Practical implications

The present study provides a method to design aero‐engine components based on probabilistic design for further research.

Social implications

Moreover, the present study provides a way to design structures based on probabilistic design.


It is proved that probabilistic‐based design could produce a lower weight turbine disk by integrating well‐proved deterministic design methods and tools with probabilistic design techniques while maintaining low failure probability.



Hu, D., Wang, R. and Tao, Z. (2011), "Probabilistic design for turbine disk at high temperature", Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, Vol. 83 No. 4, pp. 199-207.



Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2011, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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