ESTIMATING THE IMMEDIATE EFFECTS OF AN UNPRECEDENTED EVENT OF TERRORISM

Abstract

The negative impact of unexpected events, such as terrorism and natural disaster, on national and regional economies has been widely recognized, but seldom quantified immediately after the shock. The objective of this paper is to present an alternative quantitative method to forecast immediate short term impacts given an unprecedented negative shock to a regional economy, including tourism related sectors. The result of application to the September 11 attack over New York City shows promising validity of using a deterministic model of an input-output/social accounting matrix, which depicts the annual flow of and interdependency of industrial sectors in the economy. This implies applicability of the method to forecast immediate impacts of negative events, while further required refinements are suggested.

Citation

Hara, T. (2005), "ESTIMATING THE IMMEDIATE EFFECTS OF AN UNPRECEDENTED EVENT OF TERRORISM", Advances in Hospitality and Leisure (Advances in Hospitality and Leisure, Vol. 1), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 237-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1745-3542(04)01016-1