Chapter 8 Estimating and Forecasting GARCH Models in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Regime Switches

Abstract

In this chapter, we outline the statistical consequences of neglecting structural breaks and regime switches in autoregressive and GARCH models and propose two strategies to approach the problem. The first strategy is to identify regimes of constant unconditional volatility using a change point detector and estimate a separate GARCH model on the resulting segments. The second approach is to use a multiple-regime GARCH model, such as the Flexible Coefficient GARCH (FCGARCH) specification, where the regime-switches are governed by an observable variable. We apply both alternatives to an array of financial time series and compare their forecast performance.

Citation

Hillebrand, E. and Medeiros, M.C. (2008), "Chapter 8 Estimating and Forecasting GARCH Models in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Regime Switches", Rapach, D.E. and Wohar, M.E. (Ed.) Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty (Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Vol. 3), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 303-327. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-8715(07)00208-4