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Chapter 7 What Can We Learn from Comprehensive Data Revisions for Forecasting Inflation? Some US Evidence

Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty

ISBN: 978-0-444-52942-8, eISBN: 978-1-84950-540-6

Publication date: 29 February 2008

Abstract

The empirical properties of benchmark revisions to key US macroeconomic aggregates are examined. News versus noise impact of revisions is interpreted via the cointegration property of successive benchmark revisions. Cointegration breaks down in the last two years before a benchmark revision. Hence, we conclude that there is some information content in benchmark revisions. This last point is illustrated by reporting that inflation forecasts could be improved by the addition of a time series that reflects benchmark revisions to real GDP. Standard backward- and forward-looking Phillips curves are used to explore the statistical significance of benchmark revisions.

Citation

Siklos, P.L. (2008), "Chapter 7 What Can We Learn from Comprehensive Data Revisions for Forecasting Inflation? Some US Evidence", Rapach, D.E. and Wohar, M.E. (Ed.) Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty (Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Vol. 3), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 271-299. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-8715(07)00207-2

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2008, Emerald Group Publishing Limited