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Chapter 1 Forecasting Annual UK Inflation Using an Econometric Model over 1875–1991

Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty

ISBN: 978-0-444-52942-8, eISBN: 978-1-84950-540-6

ISSN: 1574-8715

Publication date: 29 February 2008

Abstract

In recent work, we have developed a theory of economic forecasting for empirical econometric models when there are structural breaks. This research shows that well-specified models may forecast poorly, whereas it is possible to design forecasting devices more immune to the effects of breaks. In this chapter, we summarise key aspects of that theory, describe the models and data, then provide an empirical illustration of some of these developments when the goal is to generate sequences of inflation forecasts over a long historical period, starting with the model of annual inflation in the UK over 1875–1991 in Hendry (2001a).

Citation

Clements, M.P. and Hendry, D.F. (2008), "Chapter 1 Forecasting Annual UK Inflation Using an Econometric Model over 1875–1991", Rapach, D.E. and Wohar, M.E. (Ed.) Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty (Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Vol. 3), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 3-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-8715(07)00201-1

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2008, Emerald Group Publishing Limited