Does Statistical Dependence Matter? Evidence from the USD/AUD

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of volatility scaling on valuing financial assets by examining the long-term return properties of the spot USD/AUD. Tests are conducted for evidence of a scaling law in USD/AUD returns. The economic implications of dependence and non-normality of the distribution of returns are explored using the Garman and Kohlhagen modified Black–Scholes model for valuing foreign currency options. The results suggest that the USD/AUD does not conform to a stable distribution and that as a result of differential scaling laws, Garman and Kohlhagen option values using implied annual volatility will be consistently too high or too low.

Citation

Ellis, C.A. (2005), "Does Statistical Dependence Matter? Evidence from the USD/AUD", Fetherston, T.A. and Batten, J.A. (Ed.) Asia Pacific Financial Markets in Comparative Perspective: Issues and Implications for the 21st Century (Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis, Vol. 86), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 53-72. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1569-3759(05)86003-6