Technology and greenhouse gas emissions: An integrated scenario analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model

Abstract

This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The High-Efficiency Low Carbon scenario analyzed in this study would result in significant annual net savings to the U.S. economy, even after accounting for all relevant investment costs and program implementation costs. This strategy would result in roughly half of the carbon reductions needed to meet the Kyoto target being achieved from domestic U.S. investments, and net savings of more than $50B per year for the U.S. in 2010.

Citation

Koomey, J.G., Cooper Richey, R., Laitner, S., Markel, R.J. and Marnay, C. (2001), "Technology and greenhouse gas emissions: An integrated scenario analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model", Hall, D.C. and Horwarth, R.B. (Ed.) The Long-Term Economics of Climate Change: Beyond a Doubling of Greenhouse Gas Concentrations (Advances in the Economics of Environmental Resources, Vol. 3), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 175-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1569-3740(01)03020-6