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Chapter 13 Evaluation and Conclusions

Simulating an Ageing Population: A Microsimulation Approach Applied to Sweden

ISBN: 978-0-444-53253-4, eISBN: 978-1-84950-536-9

Publication date: 9 April 2008


The predicted increase in the population share of elderly in Sweden is rather modest compared to some of the central and south European countries. The share of 65+ will, in our base scenario, increase from 17.5 to 23.9 percent in the period 2000–2040. Yet, this implies a major increase in the number of elderly. The number of 65+ will increase by 58 percent. The very old and care intensive group 80+ will increase even more, by 75 percent, and their share of the population will increase from 5.1 to 7.9 percent in 40 years. This is likely to put an increased pressure on the political system to match the expected increased demand for health care and social care by an increased supply. In some countries, the increase in the number of elderly will become balanced by a decrease in the number of children, and thus a natural reallocation of resources from children to elderly is possible. This is, according to our simulations, not the case in Sweden. The population share of those below 18 will stay rather stable between 21 and 22 percent.


Klevmarken, A. (2008), "Chapter 13 Evaluation and Conclusions", Klevmarken, A. and Lindgren, B. (Ed.) Simulating an Ageing Population: A Microsimulation Approach Applied to Sweden (Contributions to Economic Analysis, Vol. 285), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 409-419.



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