Search results

The chapter analyses the international economic specialization of the Republic of Belarus based on the balance of payments and national statistics data by type of economic activity. It also demonstrates application of the customized Trade in Value Added methodology for analysis of the international economic specialization of Belarus. The methodology has been developed for the calculation of selected key figures for 2011–2016. Using of “Input–Output” tables to measure intersectoral relationships enabled assessment of the international trade not only in terms of prices of goods and services, but in terms of value added of each product. The analysis shows that the most important industries of the international economic specialization of Belarus are oil products, chemical products, food stuffs, equipment and vehicles, transport services, computer services. Domestic value added share of exports is about 60%, which corresponds to the level of such countries of Central and Eastern Europe as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia, Poland. Consequently, import intensity of exports accounts for about 40%. The results of the study have allowed to assess the interrelation between production, exports, and economic growth and to provide recommendations ensuring a deficit-free balance of payments.

The analysis of the main stages of the Belarusian economy's development from 2000 to 2018 has been carried out, the main factors and limitations of economic growth considered. The known models of economic growth applied to the Belarusian economy are shown. It is grounded that the correct use of endogenous growth models based on production functions is hampered by the significant influence of exogenous factors on the Belarusian economy, and it is more preferable to use models based on the balance of payments under these conditions. The methodology for modeling the balanced economic growth based on Input–Output tables' data is proposed, the results of its use are shown. Three scenarios for the growth of the Belarusian economy until 2025 are analyzed: baseline, adverse, and target; the desired structural changes are identified for the implementation of the target scenario.